Agreed that small differences (compared to global scale) can make a notable difference. If the forecast track had been well out over the sea then the wind damage would indeed be significantly less. However, the track has been either right along the coast or a bit farther west up the spine of the Florida peninsula. The magnitude of damage from either of these tracks would not be much different; the change would be the areas most badly affected but this is a huge Cat 5 storm, likely Cat 4 at landfall so destruction is going to be pretty widespread anyway. Models have trended a little farther west, so the west coast and eastern Panhandle are currently more under threat than previously.
ECMWF initialized 12z Friday September 8th:
GFS initialized 12z Friday September 8th:
As for the models, ensembles usually have outliers. I don't know and can't guess which models you are specifically referring to; but bear in mind that some of those you will see in tropical forecasts include not only dynamical models but also statistical models, some blended dynamical-statistical models, some simple trajectory models and some climatological.
Always remember the old adage: "All models are wrong; but some are useful."