As CPO Pertwee would say . . . . "Everybody down!"

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Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]

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Nov 26, 2016, 6:45:46 AM11/26/16
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.... or as a one-time Chief Forecaster at Bracknell might have said .... " Is this some sort of joke? "



Would be an interesting 'cross-section' exercise :-)


Martin.

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Smartie

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Nov 26, 2016, 10:21:12 AM11/26/16
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Here's what the GFS-5kmWRF T+24 makes of it.

Richard Dixon

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Nov 29, 2016, 4:28:30 AM11/29/16
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Martin - I forget whether this is the case but aren't the fronts automated now (per the work of Tim Hewson)?

Richard

Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]

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Nov 29, 2016, 4:59:38 AM11/29/16
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... I doubt there's not a facility to delete fronts (or modify them): in this case, in my view, the 'inner' front added nothing to the forecast - and speaking as someone who was underneath the three-way system, I couldn't detect the various changes.

Sometimes you have to do a little common-sense cleansing for operational work :-)

Martin.

Richard Dixon

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Nov 29, 2016, 6:10:53 AM11/29/16
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On Tuesday, 29 November 2016 09:59:38 UTC, Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset] wrote:
... I doubt there's not a facility to delete fronts (or modify them): 

Would be interested to know if anyone can confirm/deny this - or whether the objective front algorithm has a "sensitivity" parameter to prevent over-fronting (!)

Richard 

Freddie

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Nov 29, 2016, 10:38:59 AM11/29/16
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I expect there is a facility to delete and/or edit - the *SXX are, after all, a product in which humans add value.

It may be the case that all the fronts shown were referred to in written guidance, and were there as markers for the meteorological changes (but not necessarily at the surface) that were discussed.  I'm not saying that to use the published forecast charts for this purpose is good practice, but just thinking about possible reasons for the plethora of fronts on that chart!

Jack Harrison

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Nov 29, 2016, 12:31:21 PM11/29/16
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The midday chart had one of these “mythical” cold fronts. 

No measurable rain, just a few spots.  Temperature slowly fell by less than 1 degree but this was probably simply diurnal.

Youtube video linked below in the so-called “colder air” is 20 minutes either side of official sunset.

 

https://youtu.be/qpsMfV30LwA


Jack

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