Do severe winters follow anticyclonic Octobers?

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xmetman

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Nov 3, 2016, 12:34:20 PM11/3/16
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October 2016 was the third most anticyclonic October since 1871. Not a lot of people know that. Here's a table of the monthly analysis ranked on highest anticyclonicity using the Objective Lamb Weather Type [LWT] data series maintained by the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.


The more eagled eyed amongst you may have noticed that I have highlighted October 1946, 1962 & 1978  in the first table in green. These of course are October's that preceded the most severe winters since the second World War, namely 1946/47, 1962/63 and 1978/79. In fact the more I look at the list the more severe winters I see, for example 1879/80, 1887/88 and 1985/86 and the bitter cold spell in the January of that winter. Having said that 2007 was the joint 2nd most anticyclonic October and the following winter was super mild, so forget all that twaddle!


David Mitchell

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Nov 3, 2016, 1:47:19 PM11/3/16
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1956 also. I was looking at some temperature records for this area of France recently, and they were actually scary.

Much as I like a good winter, I really hope we don't get anything approaching that.

Scott W

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Nov 3, 2016, 1:56:13 PM11/3/16
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If you consider those figures down to position 12 (1964) the chance of a snow-worthy winter (4.2C mean here in my part of the SE) is very slightly more probable.
Cold enough for one decent snowfall: 53% Too mild: 47%

As you say, however, it can be very much either or - severely cold or super mild

Colin Youngs

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Nov 3, 2016, 6:21:51 PM11/3/16
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<1956 also. I was looking at some temperature records for this area of France recently, and they were actually scary.>
 
Extreme cold in France and elsewhere in Europe was in February 1956.  Bruce's table lists October 1956 as joint 11th most anticyclonic October, i.e. after that extreme February.
 
Average temperature at Brussels Uccle in February 1956 was -6.1°C: by far the coldest month on the record, which goes back to 1833.
 
 
Colin Youngs
Brussels

David Mitchell

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Nov 4, 2016, 4:25:14 AM11/4/16
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Bruce's table lists October 1956 as joint 11th most anticyclonic October, i.e. after that extreme February.
 
Average temperature at Brussels Uccle in February 1956 was -6.1°C: by far the coldest month on the record, which goes back to 1833.
 
 
Colin Youngs
Brussels

Doh! Of course it was after!!!!! 

Paul Garvey

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Nov 4, 2016, 8:08:03 AM11/4/16
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Ah! The difficulties of pattern-matching as a predictive tool. Always interesting though. 

Richard Dixon

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Nov 4, 2016, 8:11:14 AM11/4/16
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That sixteen year cold winter cycle that went 46/47, 62/63. 78/79, 94/9...oh bugger!

Would be interested to see a (likely scattered-everywhere) chart of anticyclonic indices or prevalence of easterly LWTs versus the Nov-Feb CET.

Great stuff
Richard

Keith (Southend)

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Nov 5, 2016, 9:20:20 AM11/5/16
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Out of interest I was wondering about 2007, which is the fly in the ointment, so to speak, how it fitted with El Nina/La Nina/ Neutral. With most stacking the odds on an anti-cyclonic October being followed by a cold, if not severe winter, I am sort of preparing myself for one...

Keith (Southend)

Paul Garvey

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Nov 5, 2016, 9:57:35 AM11/5/16
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Paul Garvey

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Nov 5, 2016, 9:57:53 AM11/5/16
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Similar to 2016?

John Hall

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Nov 21, 2016, 12:01:46 PM11/21/16
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Just catching up on my return from a holiday.1995-6 was quite a cold winter, so 17 years after 1978-9. And then there was December 2010, 32 years after 1978-9. (Or 2009-10, which fits the presumed cycle only slightly less well.) Lets wait and see what happens in 2026-7, give or take a year.
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