UKMO v ECMWF

[xmetman]

Phil 'the windmill' Avery highlighted some model differences between the UKMO and the ECMWF for midday Thursday on this lunchtime's weather forecast (1.57 PM).

He then rather oddly went onto show the forecast graphic (ECMWF?) which shows no thunderstorms across central areas at midday.

Here are some of the other models...

This is how the UKMO see midday on Thursday (afternoon video forecast), and as you can see they already have heavy showers breaking out from Devon to Sussex, so I'm not at all clear what Phil Avery is going on about.

[Len W]

Is n't Philip Avery tied to Meteogroup now?

In which case he presents a combi forecast of several models.

It can end up as a bit of a muddle, as in this case.

I did not see it, but was the final combi forecast unclear?

Len

Wembury

[xmetman]

Len

He didn't say which one they had plumped for, but I assume it was the ECMWF.

Bruce

[Julian Mayes]

Ouch, Len!   :)        

Dealing first the model used, why should it be EC?   It can be either MO or EC and it looks to me from the graphics as though they (note use of the the word 'they') were using MO - on the screenshot of Mr Avery, the rain is shown under his hand and also coming into East Anglia - under the London banner. This matches the MO fairly well. It also seems to match reality this morning too and that surely is the point. 

You may think I'm writing this as some kind of MG spokesperson - I have now left the company and am now an independent consultant, though still with some links. But I do know that they are not some kind of 'combi' forecast as Len suggests - the preferred model is displayed after a conference each day. Surely this is what all decent forecasters do - they review the different model solutions and think about which outcome makes sense and seems most plausible.  Yes, the graphics can be modified to some extent. Sorry you find this a 'muddle' , Len. 

Julian

Molesey    Surrey    

[xmetman]

I agree Julian, it does looks like the Met Office gave the better guidance at midday (Phil Avery's hand not withstanding), although the bulk of the sferic activity does seem to be over Holland at the moment. 

A MeteoGroup spokesperson might add a point of contact into what to me is a very private organisation. 

[quaesoveritas]

I agree.

The BBC are increasingly "having their cake and eating it", by giving us several possible scenarios.

I guess they are trying to tell us how difficult forecasting is, but having changed to Meteogroup, they should have the courage of their convictions and stick to whatever they are forecasting.