Stupid slapdash forecast

Tudor Hughes

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Oct 8, 2021, 1:43:47 PM10/8/21

to Weather and Climate

On the 5.55 pm Radio 4 forecast Louise Lear said it had been a GLORIOUS day. Not here, it hadn't, nor, it seems most of the southern half of the country with a complete cover of St and Sc but no mention was made of this. How can you take seriously someone who can't even get present conditions right? It was so idiotic I lost interest. The whole thing only lasted about a minute, having to yield to media-twat bollock-speak. Give it up! You're rubbish!

Tudor Hughes

Graham Easterling

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Oct 9, 2021, 7:29:09 AM10/9/21

to Weather and Climate

How can you take seriously someone who can't even get present conditions right?

Sadly, that's often the case. When I checked the MetO forecast for Penzance at breakfast, it was rain all morning. Now noon & it's still raining apparently.

Except it's been a dry, bright, calm morning with bursts of sunshine. Currently near 17C & very pleasant. There is some evidence of rain falling from the thicker patches of medium level cloud, but not (so far) a drop reaching the ground. The prom at noon. Not bad for a 90% chance of steady rain.

A far better morning than yesterdays fog & low cloud, when sunshine was forecast.

I think the models now do a fairly remarkable job for 3 or 4 days ahead, converting their output into an accurate local weather forecast has some way to go.

Just off for a pint outside the pub.

Graham

Penzance

Len W

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Oct 9, 2021, 6:02:38 PM10/9/21

to Weather and Climate

The devil is in the detail.

That is, cloud cover and rain on short and long time scales.

The high res models clearly struggle to get it right on a local scale.

I can't understand why the modellers think that the forecasts will improve the smaller the space scale and the more levels you have

in the models.

It is a case of, 'we have the computing power and capacity, let's do it'.

Numerical modelling cloud development and disspation with all the feedbacks is a big ask.