MetO New & Old Forecast.

[Graham Easterling]

I noticed the MetO are new allowing you to switch between 'new' forecasts under trial, and the old. (Though they could make switching between the 2 easier, like say pressing just one button, rather than a series of buttons then having to go back to the forecast page).

Anyway, I've been looking, and overall forecast temperatures are a degree or so higher, which looks like a move in the right direction.

However there are some decent day to day variations between the forecasts, making planning 2 days ahead tricky. Take this mornings forecast for Thursday, when my disabled daughter was thinking of horse ridings (she's now booked it)

Old Forecast

Cool again, but fairly dry. Add on the normal degree or 2C and it'll be fine.

New forecast, the one day when it's not warmer than the old

A good deal more iffy. If that was the only forecast, we'd probably give it a miss.

This is the big issue with local forecasts, they are still often unable to help with planning outside activities, which is a very big issue for many businesses in Cornwall.

I read this for a following Saturday's forecast on a Sennen facebook page.

"What is not so alright with me is a forecast for heavy rain during the day when there was none. It puts people off and I would rather have the support of our national weather forecasters than have then conspiring against me. I had several people through the morning expressing surprise that they were not getting wet. Others would have stayed at home and not ventured in this direction with their bulging wallets."

As I've said before (sorry) I think the models are very good at forecasting synoptic developments, sometimes quite amazing, but translating that into hour to hour weather at a given location has some way to go. 

Anyway, I'll have to keep tabs (literally Chrome tabs - as the only way to flip easily between forecasts) on the forecast to see if the new forecast is better. For Thursday I rather hope not, but otherwise . .

For what it's worth the new forecast got yesterday spot on. The old one was way off, forecasting a mid afternoon clearance right up until the time it didn't happen, so perhaps it will be a step forward.

Graham

Penzance

[Graham Easterling]

Initial thoughts are that the new trial forecasts a better. Today prolonged sunshine here in Penzance, much more cloud just inland, it develops quickly within 1 mile of the coast.

The old forecast had white clouds all morning, the new forecast shows the immediate south coast sunnier, and warmer, in fact very close to the actual temperature at noon (forecast 14C, actual 14.8C). The old forecasts consistently overstate the cloud cove & understate temperature right on the coast in these sort of conditions. The new trial one is nearer the mark.

Anyway, enjoyed a pint, in a T shirt outside the Yacht today, discussing the old days when Jethro Tull, Genesis & Queen played the Pz Winter Gardens. They have a picture in the bar of the Sex Pistols in the "Wints" when they were banned virtually everywhere in England. Those were the days, the Wints was closed around 1990 due to wealthy 2nd home owners buying up properties and complaining of the noise. Now we have the much hated (loved by the BBC) celebrity chefs (one of whom has single handedly destroyed the old Padstow and has had a BBC series describing his Cornwall !!!!) and the wealthy incomers who seem to prefer watching someone cook sausages than live music.  I mean, what have the English done for you . . . Well, Monty Python I suppose, Isambard Kingdom Brunel, The Stones, 

Graham

Penzance