Ian is no more, Julias hanging on and Karl makes an appearance

[xmetman]

[Richard Dixon]

And if you're in Bermuda, you certainly don't want this to happen in T+10 days' time with Ian. 

I'd say "but it won't happen" but I recall laughing and pointing out the weird track of then Tropical Storm Sandy to colleagues as it moved up the East Coast and did an abrupt handbrake-turn into New Jersey in the EC T+7 day forecast...

Richard

[xmetman]

Richard do you mean Karl?

[Richard Dixon]

Yes sorry, Karl. Two days on EC keeps developing it and keeps making a bee-line for Bermuda...would like to see track density of hurricanes in the last 5 or so years as Bermuda appears to have had more than its fair share of close shaves (and the odd hit).

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ecmwf/2016/09/18/basis00/noat/pslv/16092500_1800.gif

Richard

[xmetman]

I already have that functionality in the app I wrote. 

These are the tracks of tropical cyclones that made it to hurricane status for 2011-2015. 

I could filter and draw the tracks only when at hurricane strength, which would cut out all the tropical storms and thin the number of plotted tracks out a bit.

The problem with all tropical cyclones is that the data files are only updated at the end of the season - in fact next March. Otherwise I think I would follow them more closely during the season.

Why they [NHC] don't generate the latest track and then add the best guess forecast track to that on a six hourly basis beats me. I suppose they leave that to the NWP forecast MSLP frames.