Temperature plunges over N. Pole

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Len W

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Nov 11, 2017, 1:58:41 PM11/11/17
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Temperature has become unusually low over the N. Pole so this may have consequences for us.
Watch this space.



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Trevor Harley

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Nov 12, 2017, 4:12:02 AM11/12/17
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OK, why has it?

Paul Garvey

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Nov 12, 2017, 4:20:51 AM11/12/17
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It's a short-term anomaly. It happens often. Doubtful if it will have consequences, as many occurrences that I've seen in the past haven't. Do you remember Lawrence used to post these every time the temperature in high latitudes fell?  

John Hall

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Nov 12, 2017, 6:32:57 AM11/12/17
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A Sudden Stratospheric Cooling? :) One would imagine that, if it means anything for the UK's weather, it would indicate a reduced chance of blocking in our vicinity.

Len W

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Nov 12, 2017, 7:21:36 AM11/12/17
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Hard to know why Trevor. Caused by a circulation change no doubt, but there are so many feedbacks.
As Paul says, maybe not significant in going forward.
Loosely, a cooling in the stratosphere is associated with a strengthening of the circulation in the troposphere, and milder/wetter conditions at the surface.

It is a bit more instructive to look at the zonal mean temp. around 50N as shown in the graphic below.
You can see how variable it gets in the winter months.
The cooling that went on last November did lead to a mild winter in general for the UK.

Nothing much special indicated yet in the forecast on the graph.



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Alastair B. McDonald

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Nov 12, 2017, 8:23:35 AM11/12/17
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This is the chart that Lawrence used to post: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png Temperature North of 80 degs.

Paul Garvey

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Nov 14, 2017, 4:39:18 AM11/14/17
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I remember them well. I doubt he would have brought this to anyone's attention in 2017. *>))

Len W

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Feb 14, 2018, 5:44:58 PM2/14/18
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I told you to watch this space.

November was an early plunge.
It set the pattern for high variability.

;-)



Len
Wembury

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Alastair B. McDonald

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Feb 14, 2018, 7:07:58 PM2/14/18
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That looks more like a false reading than a SSW to me.

John Hall

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Feb 15, 2018, 4:22:18 AM2/15/18
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I suspect that it's genuine, as for the last week or so the models have been predicting an exceptionally severe SSW.

Alastair B. McDonald

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Feb 15, 2018, 10:21:37 AM2/15/18
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On Thursday, 15 February 2018 09:22:18 UTC, John Hall wrote:
I suspect that it's genuine, as for the last week or so the models have been predicting an exceptionally severe SSW.

Alastair B. McDonald

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Feb 20, 2018, 4:38:35 AM2/20/18
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