Temperature plunges over N. Pole

[Len W]

Temperature has become unusually low over the N. Pole so this may have consequences for us.
Watch this space.

[Trevor Harley]

OK, why has it?

[Paul Garvey]

It's a short-term anomaly. It happens often. Doubtful if it will have consequences, as many occurrences that I've seen in the past haven't. Do you remember Lawrence used to post these every time the temperature in high latitudes fell?  

[John Hall]

A Sudden Stratospheric Cooling? :) One would imagine that, if it means anything for the UK's weather, it would indicate a reduced chance of blocking in our vicinity.

[Len W]

Hard to know why Trevor. Caused by a circulation change no doubt, but there are so many feedbacks.
As Paul says, maybe not significant in going forward.
Loosely, a cooling in the stratosphere is associated with a strengthening of the circulation in the troposphere, and milder/wetter conditions at the surface.

It is a bit more instructive to look at the zonal mean temp. around 50N as shown in the graphic below.
You can see how variable it gets in the winter months.
The cooling that went on last November did lead to a mild winter in general for the UK.

Nothing much special indicated yet in the forecast on the graph.

[Alastair B. McDonald]

This is the chart that Lawrence used to post: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png Temperature North of 80 degs.

[Paul Garvey]

I remember them well. I doubt he would have brought this to anyone's attention in 2017. *>))

[Len W]

I told you to watch this space.

November was an early plunge.
It set the pattern for high variability.

;-)



Len
Wembury

[Alastair B. McDonald]

That looks more like a false reading than a SSW to me.

[John Hall]

I suspect that it's genuine, as for the last week or so the models have been predicting an exceptionally severe SSW.

[Alastair B. McDonald]

On Thursday, 15 February 2018 09:22:18 UTC, John Hall wrote:

I suspect that it's genuine, as for the last week or so the models have been predicting an exceptionally severe SSW.

Yes, it now seems to be cooling: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

[Alastair B. McDonald]

It looks like we have another SSW!

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/