Hurricane Nicole beats the shear

[xmetman]

Despite early forecasts from the NHC that that it wouldn't go beyond tropical storm status and die a quick death in the Atlantic, hurricane Nicole did make it, and not just to category one but category two!

I've copied the latest discussion which as an interesting climate statistic. The NHC is still warning of increasing shear, but the last two tropical cyclones seem to thrive on it, I just wonder if Nicole will strengthen even further!  The forecasters down at the NHC are having a pretty torrid time of it this month.

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

... I hope this comment won't be thought insensitive, but for those of us well away from the 'seat of the action' the whole situation over there is proving of great interest: Matthew has been discussed - but for me it's the behaviour of Nicole that is the wierdo: I could see nothing a few days ago to challenge the NHC assessment of its likely development (or non-development), yet here we are with an 'historic' pairing.

Unfortunately, more deaths are going to result from Matthew - but lets hope that Floridians heed the warnings, and therefore minimise the deaths and injuries.

Martin.
 

[xmetman]

Martin

It's funny you should say that because I was just thinking about some of the weird weather things that have gone recently:- 

1. The rapid increase in Arctic sea ice from an early minimum (now steadying off)
   
2. The late collapse of Antarctic sea ice just before its maximum
   
3. The intense very early Scandinavian high pressure and block.
   
4. Matthew making it to category five despite the shear.
   
5. Nicole making it to a category two hurricane against the shear and being written off in early forecasts 
   
6. To come (maybe) a cold October and an Arctic northerly in the latest GFS T+192 similar to the one outlined in the Daily Express!
   

Of course they are all just coincidental - well that's what I'm trying to convince myself of.

Bruce.

[Martin Rowley [West Moors/East Dorset]]

... one thing is certain Bruce: you sure did us all a favour starting this forum!! Looks like an interesting few months ahead :-}

Martin.

[Paul Garvey]

They are all coincidental! The Atlantic hurricane situation is fascinating however, notwithstanding the awful death toll from Matthew. There will be more to come for sure. I did say Matthew's earlier forecast path could result in it being one of the most devastating hurricanes in recent years. That's already happening and the $ cost will rack up as it brushes the coast of the a fair proportion of the SE USA. 

[Richard Dixon]

On Friday, 7 October 2016 09:13:44 UTC+1, xmetman wrote:

Nicole making it to a category two hurricane against the shear and being written off in early forecasts 

Bruce - there was discussion on twitter that I'd seen about how the upper level outflow from Matthew has influenced the weakening of Nicole. Not sure just how directly to be honest, but an interesting point made.

Richard