Len Wood
Jul 18, 2016, 11:44:37 AM7/18/16
to Weather and Climate
This GFS output for Tues 1800 UTC looks a bit fruity for thunderstorms.
But where exactly in the UK?
Looks worse up north.
But where exactly in the UK?
Looks worse up north.
Richard Dixon
Jul 18, 2016, 12:08:57 PM7/18/16
to Weather and Climate
Would be interesting to know how rare 2000+ J/kg values occur in the UK...Once every two years or so?
Based on this CAPE climatology paper:
...it seems that once every 2-3 years seems reasonable. Maximum CAPE here for 9 years here:
Richard
xmetman
Jul 19, 2016, 5:09:24 AM7/19/16
to Weather and Climate
Len
CAPE is just potential, but for the bulk of England it doesn't look like that potential will be put to any use!
Bruce.
Richard Dixon
Jul 19, 2016, 5:18:40 AM7/19/16
to Weather and Climate
Is that a maximum of >3000 J/kg I can see over SW Manchester/Cheshire?
Richard
Len Wood
Jul 19, 2016, 7:37:17 AM7/19/16
to Weather and Climate
Depends on vertical wind shear too Bruce
Might need to work out some bulk Richardson numbers.
If they are around 50 or below, thunderstorms are more likely.
I see there is some activity off Brest atm.
Len
Wembury.
Might need to work out some bulk Richardson numbers.
If they are around 50 or below, thunderstorms are more likely.
I see there is some activity off Brest atm.
Len
Wembury.
Richard Dixon
Jul 19, 2016, 7:41:25 AM7/19/16
to Weather and Climate
On Tuesday, 19 July 2016 12:37:17 UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:
I see there is some activity off Brest atm.
Interesting that none of the models appear to have got this area of showers...
Richard
xmetman
Jul 19, 2016, 7:47:03 AM7/19/16
to Weather and Climate
It needs a trigger, and you would think the switch to fresher air over the SW overnight would be enough to do it, but there seems to be no related weather with this airmass change in the south of the country.
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