Mark next Thursday down in your calendars....

[xmetman]

...as the day that summer finally arrived, well at least for a day!

[xmetman]

On this Met Office 10 day outlook from the Met Office Alex Deakin waxes lyrical about an Omega block and the possibilities of hot weather or a continuation of the unsettled cyclonic weather.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6pZi8F1pNE&t=307s

I somehow knew the jet stream would be the answer to whatever question he had.

I personally think that it will get very warm, but remain unsettled, with the best weather further east in Europe.

[xmetman]

I know I've said this before but WHY does Alex Deakin have to resort to using ECMWF model output to do the 10 day outlook?

Why doesn't he simply use Met Office NWP data? 

After all he's sat right next door to the central forecasting office in Exeter.

[Freddie]

Maybe they think the ECMWF model has a better handle on what's going to happen rather than the UKMO global model?

--
Freddie
Dorrington
Shropshire
115m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/statistics/201906JUN.xlsx

[xmetman]

Yes I would agree, but invariably when I watch the 10 day outlook they always ends up comparing diverging output from the latest two runs of the ECMWF ensemble, and not the UKMO ensemble, which I've never seen.

[xmetman]

[Len]

Not sure ECMWF agrees with your forecast for next Thursday Bruce.

Len

Wembury

[xmetman]

Yes the ECMWF is frantically oscillating where the asis of the hot plume will be from day to day Len.

Personally I'm perfectly happy with 18°C as long as its dry and reasonably sunny.

The last sunny day up here was on the 17th of May which although just a month seems avery long time ago now.

Even if we do get an anticyclone its a pound to a penny it'll have some kind of occlusion embedded in it.

[xmetman]

It's certainly going to pump a lot of heat into the lower atmosphere before it all gets swept away...

[xmetman]

[Colin Youngs]

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/update-on-the-intense-heat-wave-next-week-much-above-normal-temperatures-will-develop-across-west-central-europe-june-24-30th-2019/

Colin Youngs

Brussels

[xmetman]

Well as it turned out the forecast from the previous week was more or less spot on if you weren't holidaying in the outer Isles or Cleethorpes.

[Len]

It was a good call Bruce.

Had 25C as max in my Stevenson screen on both Wed and Thurs.

Did not expect a howling easterly though.

Len

Wembury

[xmetman]

That strength of mean wind speed was unusual for June and it's still nagging away.

Paradoxically the warmest of the air at 850 hPa is across the southwest at the moment...

[Graham Easterling]

Summer was really started a week ago here. Last Friday 20.4C & prolonged sunshine. Sat (not Sunday) Mon Tues Weds all perfect beach days. I was on the sea each of those days. Temperature peaking at 25.1C on Weds.

Yesterday was still very warm, hot on parts of the north coast, but a near gale. Now it's changed, currently it's cloudy, though a muggy feel with the wind dropping out.

I do realise Cornwall is out of synch with most of the UK, so your forecast was spot on for much of the UK. 

200 hours of sunshine now reached on the nearby moors and no rain in the past 7 days. With the wind & sun, the grass is starting to turn brown at the edges. Camborne a good deal cloudier as it's been under the sea breeze front Cu on many days in June, with the air being unstable much of the time. Bosullow, in the far west, although on the moors, tends to miss it. 

 

Graham

Penzance

[Dave C]

Still waiting here 50 miles from France!