October in Central England

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xmetman

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Nov 1, 2017, 7:54:36 AM11/1/17
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Len W

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Nov 1, 2017, 8:33:52 AM11/1/17
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It may have been warmer, and in fact drier (50% of average rain here), but it still goes down as a bit of a miserable month due to the lack of sun.

Had 23 days with some rainfall. My garden remained soppy wet due to little sun and no wind from a drying direction.

☹️

Len
Wembury, SW Devon




Trevor Harley

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Nov 1, 2017, 9:17:34 AM11/1/17
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Well that's a pretty clear trend isn' it? Can't argue with that.

Brian Wakem

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Nov 1, 2017, 9:59:58 AM11/1/17
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On Wednesday, 1 November 2017 13:17:34 UTC, Trevor Harley wrote:
Well that's a pretty clear trend isn' it? Can't argue with that.


I disagree.  I can't see any trend at all from 1960 to present day. 

xmetman

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Nov 1, 2017, 11:03:55 AM11/1/17
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Linear trends can be quite deceptive so I thought that I would add a bit more functionality out of curiosity.

I think I've got this one right:

= ((11.27-10.29)/(2017-1960+1))*10
= (0.98/58)*10
= 0.016896*10
= 0.16896

So there's very little difference in a simple linear trend as far as I can see.


Trevor Harley

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Nov 1, 2017, 2:21:08 PM11/1/17
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Of course really we need the statistics.

I wrote on my site

"Snow in October was more common in the last century; indeed, there is some evidence that Octobers have been warming up considerably (more so than average), although most of the warming is due to a run of very warm Octobers between 1957 and 1972, and more broadly from 1940. The October of 1974 was then very cold. Until recently, October (along with June and December) has shown no warming trend since the 80s - but then three of the warmest have been in the last 11 years."

Although I am not altogether sure when I wrote that - it could be around 2000!

John Hall

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Nov 1, 2017, 2:37:04 PM11/1/17
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Yes, it looks as though when you referred to "the last century" you might have been comparing the 19th century with the 20th, in which case the text could do with updating.

An increase in the mean October temperature of about 2.5 degrees from the 1880s till now is huge, and I thing substantially larger than for most months. What's especially notable is the large number of very mild Octobers over the last twenty years or so, and the absence of really cool ones since the first half of the 1990s. 
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