MetO Forecast pessimism

[Graham Easterling]

For 11:00 & 12:00 70% chance of rain for Sennen. 

11:30. Man with binoculars searching for approaching Cb

Turning quite warm as well, may beat yesterdays 16.1C here in Penzance, sheltered from the brisk breeze.

Graham

Penzance

[Len W]

I'll blame your part of Cornwall then Graham for warming the air and spawning heavy showers downwind.

The air seems rather unstable east from somewhere near Truro.

We are being plagued from a line of showers.

Len

Wembury SW Devon

[Julian Mayes]

Light winds in unstable air in May = showers / convection over land.  Simples!  Yes, should be reflected in site-specific forecasts. 

Agree though, forecast pessimism is getting out of control.  The time of year when seaside businesses all over the country usually complain about forecasts.    They probably have other things on their minds right now.    

Looking at the radar about 1% of the country has a 'downpour' now.     

Julian     

[Graham Easterling]

The cloud did bubble up very easily, so you had to be right on the windward coast to get the best of the sunshine. Maximum of 15.7C slightly down on yesterday's 16.1C. Penzance actually caught a very brief shower that formed near the centre of the Lands End peninsula.

The normal line of showers, one after the other, down the spine of Cornwall, rather towards the south coast on this occasion.

Graham

Penzance

[Graham Easterling]

Yesterday the MetO forecast for Penzance was showing thunderstorms, with 2 raindrops, for almost the whole of the day today. They did show a convergence zone down the spine of the peninsula, but only starting around Truro.  Toned down a lot today, but still a 50% chance of rain shown for Penzance @ 09:00, that's the current time, it's dry. In fact no rain in the 24 hours to 09:00 today, and looking at the current satellite looks like quite a sunny morning coming up. Maximum of 15.8C yesterday. The hill top airport on Scilly (almost the highest point on the Islands) managed 15C, despite the F5 W wind. I bet it was lovely on the east side of St Martins. The Islands are too small & low to generated any real cloud, though under the right conditions, with little wind, you can get 2 small Cu over Tresco, and 2 over St Mary's (over Telegraph Hill & The Garrison), I must dig out some photos showing it.

Sennen 09:00, high tide 09:25. The cloud already becoming largely land based, though under these conditions obviously a risk of showery troughs affecting anywhere.

But overall, stick to a windward coast! Swells gone right down now that's set to change.

The models do seem to be settling on a change in 8 or 9 days time?

Graham

Penzance

On Saturday, 15 May 2021 at 15:01:50 UTC+1 Julian Mayes wrote: