Temperature forecasts awry

[Len]

Met office model max temp forecasts badly wrong the last 2 days here in Wembury

Sunday forecast max 22C , Actual 26C

Monday forecast max 24C,  Actual 29C

How can they be so wrong?

Len

[Graham Easterling]

Well out in west Cornwall today (see my earlier post). I think the models had the rain and cloud that moved NE off Lands End and into Wales, somewhat further east, and with much more cloud and breeze (onshore in Plymouth) to the east of the main rain band. Certainly, when I looked at the MetO forecast 8am, there wasn't as much as half a sun all day for Penzance and a fair chance of rain in the morning and evening. The graphics a couple of days back had rain accumulating  in west & north Cornwall, but it all fell west of Scilly & in the BRistol Channel.

This afternoon even the high cloud disappeared completely for a while, it was really deep blue. The cloud is encroaching now.  

To be fair, the MetO forecasts are normally very good these days. 

Graham

Penzance

[Graham Easterling]

Still no measurable rain in Penzance, looking at the radar I suspect most of the showers will become focused along the spine of the SW, and there'll be very little here. (I wait to be proved wrong!) I always think that the chance of rain figures aren't very good. They tend to overestimate and give little indication of the amount of rain, could be a 15 minute deluge or 3 spots. At least the GFS output displayed on XCWeather gives an indication of the amount.  The chance of any rain here fades away after today, for a long time based on some model output.

Wild fire along the  beautiful north cliffs west of Portreath at the moment, right next to he north coast road, which should act as a fire break.

Graham

Penzance