Ultra pessimistic MetO

[Graham Easterling]

For several days, right up to yesterday, the MetO were consistently showing 17C for Penzance for Friday Saturday & Sunday. BBC & XCWeather were varying from 19C-22C in their predictions.

Anyway, yesterday it reached 19.9C, when the forecast maximum was still 17C.. Around 5pm they updated the maximum to 19C, a useful retrospective forecast.

This morning at 08:30 a forecast of grey clouds until 11am and a maximum of 17C (now mercifully increased to 18C). At 09:00 it was clear blue skies and already 17.1C

This morning's grey clouds (Pic 09:20)

I often compare the 3 forecasts, and the MetO is consistently the worst.

However none of this compares with some of the statements made by DB on the BBC Spotlight forecast. There's 6' of clean surf on the north coast today. DB said that meant there was a risk of 'strong tidal Rips'! What the f**k has the tide got to do with? In any case the tides are not big, so tidal currents are not strong, certainly far less than they were a few days back during big spring tides. The Rip currents are due to the height of the surf, the water has to go back out somewhere. 

I thought he had a maritime background? He's just plain careless in his statements

Graham

Penzance

[Graham Easterling]

This morning at 08:30 a forecast of grey clouds until 11am and a maximum of 17C (now mercifully increased to 18C). At 09:00 it was clear blue skies and already 17.1C

Maximum now updated to 20C, which is nearer the mark. This seems to happen every day. Current forecast for tomorrow is now 18C (higher than the 17C it's been for days. I expect that to be upped tomorrow afternoon to 20 or 21C. It's now up to 20C at the exposed & fog prone Land's End airport.

Normally, at this time of year, forecast temperatures are quite good. They tend to be low in Spring, as they around the coasts of Devon & Cornwall, when the affect of the low SSTs are overestimated.

I do wonder if, this year, the model isn't taking into account the fact that the SST is way above normal. Currently 16-17C around virtually the whole of Devon & Cornwall. With the low angle of the sun reducing ground heating, and the high SST, sea breezes are minimal unless the temperature is well >20C. This means that coastal spots are as warm, if not warmer, than places inland which have a much cooler start. (Minimum of 15.6C in Penzance last night, close to todays forecast maximum this morning.

Graham

Penzance