Cyclonic and mobile outlook

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xmetman

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Aug 8, 2019, 4:18:48 AM8/8/19
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According to the GFS model the outlook for the next 10 days or so looks distinctly cyclonic and mobile. 
There almost looks like a periodicity of four days to it.

2019-08-08_091422.jpg


Graham Easterling

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Aug 8, 2019, 8:41:52 AM8/8/19
to Weather and Climate
There has been a definite trend towards relatively 'poor' August weather in recent years, relative to the rest of the Summer.

At my station
Mean August Temperature
1991-2010  17.2C
2011-2018  16.4C

Virtually no change in average rainfall.

OK, I've picked the dates to make the point, but even so you start to wonder if there is a change occurring. August 2019 has been warm so far, but if the forecasts turn out to be correct. .

Graham
Penzance



Jack Harrison

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Aug 8, 2019, 11:27:34 AM8/8/19
to Weather and Climate

Many years ago (in Weather Magazine I think) there was an article about parameters for accessing the quality of a summer:  rainfall, wind, maximum temperature, etc.
Some complex formula was given such as Tmax *3.2 + Sun hours *1.5 - Wind mean speed * 4.1 - Rain *7.3 (or whatever).

After comparisons of various summers using these complicated formulae and ranking them, someone subsequently wrote in and pointed out that almost exactly the same ranking was obtained by simply using sunshine hours only.

Jack

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