I do not like the look of this

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Len

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Oct 29, 2023, 1:19:00 PM10/29/23
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Storm Ciaran on the way.
peak gusts20231029-070240.png.4d89d6bb73370842c52ae12e5ff3f7d2.png

Ashley haworth-roberts

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Oct 30, 2023, 12:46:56 PM10/30/23
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Alex Deakin is implying in a new Met Office video that it could linger over Great Britain for up to 24 hours.

Graham Easterling

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Oct 30, 2023, 1:25:04 PM10/30/23
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Current GFS wind forecast for Penzance

2023-10-30 17_19_06-Capture.png

The exact track will be critical, 100 miles further south and the difference in wind speed will be huge.

At least it's not from the SE, and Spring tides will be well past. Porthleven should be photogenic.

Graham
Penzance

Ashley haworth-roberts

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Oct 30, 2023, 1:26:58 PM10/30/23
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PS Derek Brockway, who is not often wrong, has tweeted on X 'Nothing out of the ordinary ...'. But he may be thinking of Wales rather than the UK. Southern English coasts could see horizontal rain, gusts above 80 mph, and huge waves and high tides. Some hint from the current charts that the winds will slowly moderate during the second half of Thursday.

On Monday, 30 October 2023 at 16:46:56 UTC Ashley haworth-roberts wrote:

Graham Easterling

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Oct 30, 2023, 1:43:20 PM10/30/23
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Fortunately, the astronomical tides are not large. Also for Cornwall, most towns have shelter from the west, for obvious climatic reasons. The big exception is Porthleven, which is only in existence because the ancient port of Helston got blocked by the developing Looe Bar.

That's not to say it doesn't look pretty serious, though it my be a tip of Cornwall event like this. http://www.sennen-cove.com/10march08.htm  The biggest sea in living memory at Sennen, the whole north Cornish coast was badly hit.

Graham
Penzance

Len

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Oct 30, 2023, 6:38:24 PM10/30/23
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Met Office and BBC are only forecasting 55 mph gusts for Plymouth on Thursday
but the GFS via XCWeather is forecasting 70 mph gusts.
Quite a difference. We shall see.

Firefox_Screenshot_2023-10-30T22-31-24.108Z.png

Graham Easterling

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Oct 31, 2023, 5:30:31 AM10/31/23
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They've been much more consistent for Penzance, 66mph from MetO yesterday.

With the track tending to be a little further south in recent forecasts, and that secondary depression forming to the SW causing the isobars to spread a bit, they've all come down a bit this morning. Brittany is now in the main firing line rather than Cornwall.

2023-10-31 09_19_00-Capture.png


Latest forecasts a normal winter gale
GFS 66mph
BBC 65mph
MetO 60mph
Though that could change back, the precise track is going to be critical.

One issue is the recent big seas have removed a vast amount of sand from north coast beaches, leaving beaches backed by dunes or soft cliffs very exposed. The beach level at Sennen is as low as it gets, but the dunes are protected by the exposed boulders to a fair extent. The main reason that the beach is much the same now as it was in the '60s, despite having the highest average swell size of anywhere in England & Wales, and possibly mainland Scotland - excluding reef breeks like Porthleven & The Cribbar. (Well to be precise it's Gwenver, which is connected to Sennen at low tide.)

2023-10-31 09_25_37-Capture.png

Relatively calm this morning.

Graham
Penzance

Graham Easterling

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Oct 31, 2023, 3:10:51 PM10/31/23
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MetO back to 66mph for Penzance now, 85mph gust predicted for exposed parts West Cornwall & Scilly on a recent BBC forecast. NW winds tend to be under forecast on the tip of Cornwall, perhaps the funnelling around Lands End is slightly under-estimated by the models (SW winds tend to be over estimated overestimated).

Time will tell, exciting times.

Graham
Penzance 

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