A bit of a forecaster's nightmare

[Graham Easterling]

Yesterday, the low cloud persisted in the east facing side of Munt's Bay, including Penzance. It still topped 20C in often quite misty conditions. West facing coasts of Mount's Bay were a different world, with what wind there was being a very gentle easterly.

I quick look at the Porthleven webcam showed sun, so I drove around to Perranuthnoe, just passed Marazion, only 3 miles or so in a stright line. The car thermometer rose from 20 to 23C in the length of the Marazion by-pass!. It was very warm, still & fairly sunny when I arrived. When the sun, still conditions, very high humdity, and incoming tide, the sea was positively tepid. Around 2:30pm a very gentle sea breeze developed, you could see it approching by the ripples on the sea surface. That brought in sea mist and dropped the temperature by 3- 4C in a very short space of time (5 minutes or so). 

Today, a hole in the cloud has materialised just over Penzance, it's now warm and steamy, whilst many nearby locations are at least 3C cooler in fog.

A bit of a nightmare for a forecaster!

Very little rain here in the last 36 hours, around 1.5mm of mizzle & drizzle.

Graham

Penzance

[Graham Easterling]

A degree of uncertainty?!

Current SW England forecast

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Probably unsettled with showers Thursday, with a strengthening easterly wind. Perhaps drier and brighter Friday, perhaps turning warmer and more humid, with the risk of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday.

Doesn't prevent precision in the post code forecasts. At least the MetO round the chance of rain to the nearest 10%. The BBC proudly give a 34% chance of rain at 5pm Friday, 0% at 6pm, 27% at 7pm. I must remember to walk to collect the car at 6pm, where there is no chance whatsoever of getting wet!

I rather like the honesty in the words. The models have really bee struggling of late.

Graham

Penzance