Will the QBO go negative at 30 mb?

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Len Wood

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Feb 17, 2017, 12:33:33 PM2/17/17
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What's the QBO going to do?
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a natural cycle in the direction of equatorial stratospheric winds.  A complete QBO cycle averages about 28 months, split between an easterly (negative) and westerly (positive) phase in wind directions. See the bottom graph below.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt3.gif
It is on its way down now, but failed to go negative last time as you see from the red trace on the final graph.

No one knows why there was this behaviour in the stratosphere, but clearly some new feedback
was in place.
Could the lack of Arctic sea ice be having an effect?

Len
Wembury


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