Quiet Atlantic hurricane season so far

[Ashley haworth-roberts]

Though that may change.

[Len]

A bit at odds with the prediction by NOAA given in May.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season

Len

On Friday, 19 August 2022 at 17:46:52 UTC+1 a.hawort...@gmail.com wrote:

Though that may change.

[Stephen Davenport]

August especially has been very quiet with no named storms; and it's been 51 days (on August 23) and counting since the last named storm in early July - the third longest intra-seasonal hiatus on record. The strength of the sub-tropical high has helped to subdue activity, causing more of a NE'ly flow across the southern North Atlantic, with a band of cooler water edging towards the northern side of the main development region (MDR), a greater amount of shear than is favourable, and a more extensive and persistent Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the dustiness and dryness of which has been inhibiting development. As the shear decreases and the SAL diminishes, there should be the sort of uptick in activity that one would normally expect during a La Niña episode, given otherwise extensively anomalously high SSTs in the MDR. Initial expectations have been adjusted down but we are yet to reach the peak of the hurricane season, which occurs during September and continues through to November 30th.

14-21 named storms, per NOAA, doesn't sound an unreasonable range even now, as long as conditions do indeed change and we star to see some activity by late August / early September. That's a wide spread, though, and I doubt there'll be more than 16-17. 


Stephen.

[Ashley haworth-roberts]

Len and Stephen

The NOAA early August update was similar (and the Met Office didn't disagree):

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-still-expects-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season

At present there remain no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific or central Pacific. The National Hurricane Center, as of 24 August, are monitoring a couple of systems - one nearing the eastern Caribbean and one over a west African country:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Stephen Davenport]

Yes, in early August above-average activity was still expected for the whole season but with lower probability: "NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season." Other bodies have similarly slightly trimmed numbers; Colorado State, for just one example: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

 

Stephen.

[jack.h...@gmail.com]

I think most of us would agree that there is a degree of fascination in following hurricanes.  But this year even politics has been more 'exciting'.

Jack

[Graham Easterling]

But this year even politics has been more 'exciting'.

Steady on now! I think depressing is a better word.

But yes, there is an excitement involved in following storms. I'm eagerly awaiting the 1st big sea of the Autumn. Always good to get as close as possible, though I have on occasion cut it a bit fine. It only takes one BBC reporter to say "Stay away from the waters edge" and Porthleven & Sennen are gridlocked! Other big wave spots in Cornwall tend to get less publicity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaTvqlxoDUs

Graham

Penzance