Dorian Florida bound

[xmetman]

So much for a quiet start to the Hurricane season. 

Hurricane Dorian according to the NHC is forecast to make landfall in mid Florida on Tuesday.

[xmetman]

Quite by chance Dorian has been flirting with NOAA buoy 41046 in mid Atlantic. 

The forecast advisory at 09 UTC said:-

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  69.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

So it's now just to the west of 41046.

As far as I remember the NOAA buoys are programmed to report 2 minute mean speeds.

[Jack Harrison]

I do wonder what confusion all those times zone AST, EST and so on might cause- and possibly result in unnecessary risk.  Of course the Americans will never use UTC but some of the hurricane info doesn’t even say what time zone they are referring to.

Confusion about units can lead to all sorts of problems but some are quite hilarious.  (Remember the crash of that probe on Mars due to mix up of imperial and metric).   I happened to be chatting yesterday to some tourists from Alaska and they were aware that USA is just about the only country to still use Fahrenheit (and agreed how silly that is).  They pointed out that Canada changed to degs C some while ago – and of course me being Jack, I had to tell an anecdote.

Many years ago, I was with a relatively inexperienced co-pilot flying into Gander, Newfoundland one March or April.  Barry got the weather report and gleefully told the rest of the crew that it was a lovely spring day with a temperature of 15 degrees.  We old hands kept quiet.  After landing, we let Barry go out the door first – in shirt sleeves - to discover that 15 degrees was 15F (converts to -9C)

Jack

[Graham Easterling]

When I used to work at Isles of Scilly they sold one of the Islanders to a Caribbean Island (I forget which one) for flying tourists around.

Obviously, flying an Islander that distance was a bit of an issue fuel wise. It meant going up to Shetland, across to Iceland, to Greenland etc. It was going to be cold in a draughty cockpit, so the pilot took a number of Mars bars to keep his energy up. Unfortunately they went so solid he couldn't eat them. Apparently they refuelled with the engines on in Greenland, as they feared they would never restart at that temperature. (You could probably say whether that part of the story is likely to be true, or whether they were just exagerating!) I remember one publicity photography trip in an Islander, the pilot seemed to be enjoying himself, the only time I've felt travel sick in a plane.

For those that don't know, an Islander

https://www.islesofscilly-travel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/IOST_APRIL17_6.jpg

Graham

Penzance

[Paul from Dawlish]

Now Category 4. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/311455.shtml

[Graham Easterling]

Looks like Florida might not get a direct hit though (Famous last words!)

Graham

Penzance

[Paul from Dawlish]

Category 5 in the northern Bahamas. Catastrophic.

...DORIAN BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN MODERN RECORDS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
...CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ABACOS ISLANDS...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Dorian

[Jack Harrison]

Freeport Bahamas TAF  This is old so presumably airport shut down since issue and nothing more up to date found.

MYGF 012300Z 0200/0224 33050G100KT 1600 +TSRA BKN012CB BKN090 OVC200 
     FM021300 VRB80G200KT
That means variable direection : speed 80 knots gusts 200 knots.
Jack

[xmetman]

I hadn't come across the term stadium effect before. 

It's a shame you can't embed video into posts because they seem to be so many of Dorian.

[xmetman]

Which runway do you think would be best Jack?

[xmetman]

Dorian is forecast to track between NW Scotland and Iceland during the middle of next week.

By then it will be just a plain extratropical cyclone that will have to take its place in the queue to take a bash at our part of the world.

It seems Autumn has come early this year, and the leaves are already turning yellow and gold and starting to accumulate in Strathpeffer.

[Jack Harrison]

Dorian is forecast to track between NW Scotland and Iceland during the middle of next week.

That's good to know (I don't think).  On Saturday, we will be going on holiday to Orkney for a week.
Jack