Summer 2018 warmer and drier than average

[xmetman]

The Met Office haven't mentioned a barbecue summer - as if they ever would - but I'm sure it won't be long before one of the newspapers picks this forecast up for the next three months and does.

[quaesoveritas]

I guess we will have to expect a colder and dryer summer then - based on the MO past performance!

Isn't the  MO 3 month outlook always for a warmer and drier summer?

They are unlikely to predict an unexpected outcome, which would be the most useful forecast.

[quaesoveritas]

Does anyone have a link to the MO seasonal summer forecast that Bruce was referring to?

It seems to me that if they only said it would be "warmer and drier" than average, that was a considerable under-statement!

[Freddie]

On Friday, 27 July 2018 14:09:08 UTC+1, quaesoveritas wrote:

Does anyone have a link to the MO seasonal summer forecast that Bruce was referring to?

It seems to me that if they only said it would be "warmer and drier" than average, that was a considerable under-statement!

You're only ever likely to see a forecast at that range couched in those terms.  It isn't a deterministic forecast.  The link is https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners

--
Freddie
Ystrad
Rhondda
148m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/YstradRhonddaWx for hourly reports (no wind measurement currently)

[quaesoveritas]

I take it "deterministic"  means accurate or useful?  ;)

Are weather forecasts *ever* deterministic?

But we can at least expect them to be probabilistic within useful limits - otherwise there is no point.

I would hoped for "much warmer" or "much drier" at the least.

Thanks for the link but I think it is only to the latest forecast.

I take it the original one is lost forever.

[Freddie]

On Friday, 27 July 2018 14:57:08 UTC+1, quaesoveritas wrote:

I take it "deterministic"  means accurate or useful?  ;)

:-)

Are weather forecasts *ever* deterministic?

Yes.  A synoptic chart is deterministic.  So is a maximum temperature forecast.

But we can at least expect them to be probabilistic within useful limits - otherwise there is no point.

I would hoped for "much warmer" or "much drier" at the least.

Warmer and drier would cause the organisations these forecasts are aimed at to take appropriate action.  The forecasts, I think, are couched in simple terms of drier, normal and wetter for rainfall; and warmer, normal and colder for temperature.  Percentage probabilities are given for each category, and the magnitude of the probabilities are used by interested organisations to judge the level of confidence they can place in the forecast.  I don't think it is possible to be more accurate than that at such a range.  The users must find it informative, otherwise funding would swiftly be withdrawn!

Thanks for the link but I think it is only to the latest forecast.

I take it the original one is lost forever.

Oh, that's a shame.  You may be able to obtain a copy if you email the Met Office? Or one may turn up via Google.

[quaesoveritas]

"The users must find it informative, otherwise funding would swiftly be withdrawn!"

Maybe they are just too well mannered to criticise the MO, or they enjoy a good laugh.

I won't bother the MO, I doubt if they would provide me with one, its my fault for not keeping a copy.

[Freddie]

On Friday, 27 July 2018 15:56:37 UTC+1, quaesoveritas wrote:

"The users must find it informative, otherwise funding would swiftly be withdrawn!"

Maybe they are just too well mannered to criticise the MO, or they enjoy a good laugh.

:-) Would you do that for a service you were paying for?  You should try using the search tool on the Met Office web site - you get all sorts of useful nuggets, like minutes of the Public Weather Service Customer Group meetings.  You can get a reasonable "inside view" of customer opinions if you read some of those.