Sudden Stratospheric Warming

[Len W]

Is there a hint of stratospheric warming here?
We all know what this might bring if we are positioned in the right place
as regards the disruption it brings to zonal flow at the surface.



Len
Wembury

[Keith (Southend)]

Lots of pointers atm for colder times ahead this winter, but still early days and I'll only beleive it when I see it.

Keith (Southend)

[Smartie]

The SPV is currently displaced off the pole, which probably accounts for the anomaly. Further poleward flux of wave energy is forecast for this week.Continued displacement of the SPV will favour disruption in due course. Judah Cohen has nice discussion in his blog-

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Plot courtesy Dornbrack, DLR

[Smartie]

Timely article in press at BAMS briefly reviewing the current state of knowledge about S-T coupling and recent trends in weak vortex states-

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1 

[Richard Dixon]

Since there's a thread on this already, interesting note from Twitter:

Michael Ventrice

@MJVentrice

Looking less and less likely that we are going to see an early season sudden stratospheric warming episode in January. The stratospheric Polar Vortex looks to reclaim its throne over the North Pole-Siberia.

[Smartie]

... but how reliable is the CFS at S-T coupling?

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/CTB/mts-arch/CFSv2-Eval-wksp-043012_files/Perlwitz.pdf

[Jack Frost]

I work 5 doors down from Tiffany Shaw (whose name is on that pdf). Not really a useful bit of information but there you go!

Liam

[Richard Dixon]

On Wednesday, 20 December 2017 16:26:55 UTC, Smartie wrote:

... but how reliable is the CFS at S-T coupling?

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/CTB/mts-arch/CFSv2-Eval-wksp-043012_files/Perlwitz.pdf

Actually that's a mistake on my part: Ventrice usually quotes ECMWF stuff and I thought this was said output. Doubt I'd have bothered if I'd seen it was CFS !

Richard