jack.h...@gmail.com
jack.h...@gmail.com
Intense and Prolonged Rainfall: The primary cause was an incredibly intense and localized downpour. While forecasts had predicted significant rainfall (around 3-8 inches in the Hill Country), the actual amounts far exceeded those estimates, with some areas receiving over 10-12 inches, and even up to 20 inches, in just a few hours. This is an amount equivalent to several months of rain for the region.
Slow-Moving Storm System: The storm system responsible for the deluge was remarkably slow-moving. This allowed it to dump a tremendous amount of rain over the same areas for an extended period, overwhelming the capacity of the land and rivers to absorb the water.
Abundant Moisture Supply: The atmosphere was supercharged with moisture from multiple sources. A significant contributor was the warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, a common factor in Texas's heavy rainfall events. Additionally, remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, which had briefly formed and moved over Mexico, contributed to the atmospheric moisture. The absence of a strong jet stream over Texas meant this moisture-laden system wasn't pushed away, allowing it to linger.
"Flash Flood Alley" Geography: The Texas Hill Country is notoriously prone to flash flooding, earning it the nickname "Flash Flood Alley." This is due to its unique terrain:
Steep Slopes: The rugged hills cause water to run off quickly.
Thin Soil/Rocky Ground: The soil in the region is thin and rocky, which means it doesn't absorb water efficiently. This is exacerbated by the fact that the area had been experiencing a drought, making the ground even harder and less able to soak up rain. Water essentially runs off "like concrete."
Narrow River Basins: The runoff rapidly funnels into narrow river basins, causing rivers like the Guadalupe to swell incredibly fast. The Guadalupe River, for instance, rose by 22-26 feet in a matter of hours, with one gauge recording a 29.5-foot rise before failing.
Timing of the Event: The flood occurred in the early morning hours, catching many residents, including campers at summer camps, by surprise. The darkness would have hampered any last-minute efforts to evacuate or take protective measures.
Climate Change Connection (Broader Context): While it's difficult to link a specific storm directly to climate change, meteorologists note that a warmer atmosphere, influenced by human-caused climate change, can hold more moisture. This increased moisture capacity can lead to more intense rainfall events when storms do occur, even if rainfall events become less uniform. Experts suggest that in a warming climate, rainstorms in the affected area might be less frequent but more severe when they do happen.
In essence, the Texas floods were a perfect storm of an extremely slow-moving, moisture-rich weather system encountering a highly flood-prone geographical region, with the timing of the event contributing to the devastating impact.
---
Jack
jack.h...@gmail.com
Texas officials are questioning the actions of the National Weather Service leading up to Friday’s deadly floods, as fellow meteorologists defend the agency.
Some state and local officials say the NWS didn’t provide accurate forecasts ahead of Friday’s destructive flooding, months after President Donald Trump’s administration gutted the agency and experts warned forecasts could suffer.
and
The NWS, responsible for issuing critical warnings that can save lives, has recently suffered hundreds of layoffs following cost-saving directives from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
