First named storm and then snow over the hills in the north?

xmetman

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Oct 30, 2016, 5:47:18 AM10/30/16

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I remarked yesterday that it might be a cold bonfire night, but the latest run of the GFS might mean it's the first named storm of the 2016/17 season, although on closer inspection it looks more like a November gale rather than a storm. Certainly it pulls down the 528 thickness as far south as 51N as it moves into the continent, which must translate into a lot of snow over higher ground in the north if it comes off.

Len Wood

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Oct 30, 2016, 9:23:08 AM10/30/16

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Don't like the look of precipation on the 5th Nov chart.
We don't want that on Bonfire night.
But the UKMO model is not predicting any rain atm for Wembury for 5th November.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

xmetman

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Oct 30, 2016, 3:21:50 PM10/30/16

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Weirder and weirder in the next run.

Now that's what you call a cold pool!

xmetman

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Oct 31, 2016, 4:31:39 AM10/31/16

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It still looks on for that low.

The latest run resolves the centre a little better in the latest run of the GFS.

I suppose it's just about possible that this could be storm Angus, especially because the gradient seems to be tightest over the SE of England.

xmetman

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Oct 31, 2016, 12:55:34 PM10/31/16

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The midday run of the GFS has the same wintry theme as previous runs which looks especially nasty down eastern coastal areas.

But things return to zonal very quickly...

xmetman

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Nov 1, 2016, 6:24:26 AM11/1/16

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The fifth still looks cold and rather wintry still in the latest run of the GFS but not just quite as intense a northerly gradient as in previous runs.

I reckon the rockets that are launched on the night won't get too high and shoot off at a 45° angle!

xmetman

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Nov 2, 2016, 5:47:29 AM11/2/16

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Well the forecast for Bonfire night has changed quite a bit since my first post on the 30th October (T+156). Then it was forecast cyclonic [C] with a low of 994 hPa over the Lake District, now the low is forecast to be close to the Skagerrak and around 997 hPa, with the British Isles as you can see in a cyclonic northerly [CN]. But of course Bonfire night is still 3 days away so even this may be wrong. It certainly still looks cold and wintry and windy in the north and west.

Richard Dixon

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Nov 2, 2016, 4:05:37 PM11/2/16

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Shame Bruce, I was looking forward to a nice roaring NEly down here on the N Kent coast!

Richard

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