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Lacunae
Jun 9, 2018, 5:13:02 AM6/9/18
to Weather and Climate
I think I'm actively looking forwards to the return of the westerlies, after what's seemed like an entire spring (since the beast and mini beast without them). Here on the east coast it's been days and weeks of same-ish weather- mostly cool, grey and foggy at times.
xmetman
Jun 9, 2018, 7:07:58 AM6/9/18
to Weather and Climate
Please ignore the titles to the graphs below because as far as I remember this is an analysis of all LWT data from 1871 to the 6th June.
As you can see the objective LWT series does pick up Lambs 'return of the westerlies' and over the course of the next 10 days the frequency increases from 14 % to around 22%.
When I get time I'll revisit the code and fix those dates!
xmetman
Jun 9, 2018, 8:10:55 AM6/9/18
to Weather and Climate
Here's the mean MSLPand anomalies for the first 6 days of June that shows the slack E or NE'ly flow across the country.
Smartie
Jun 9, 2018, 8:19:33 AM6/9/18
to Weather and Climate
The top panel is a rather nice plot which I can't recall seeing before. Suggests to me that the average English summer is a return to normal service after spring blocking.
xmetman
Jun 9, 2018, 8:46:55 AM6/9/18
to Weather and Climate
That's because it's one of my concoctions!
I think I do it by scoring AW, W & CW one point, and NW, SW, ANW, ASW, CNW & CSW half a point!
Keith (Southend)
Jun 9, 2018, 9:03:20 AM6/9/18
to Weather and Climate
It's the time that determines what the summer ahead will be like. If the westerly return is weak, we maybe infor a hot summer, if it's strong it's World Cup 1966 moment, "They think it's over, it is now"
Keith (Southend)
Ps: Sorry to see your Blog go Bruce, but I totally understand.
John Hall
Jun 9, 2018, 2:55:00 PM6/9/18
to Weather and Climate
I predict that the westerlies will return on 20th June, as that's the day when I am going on holiday to the Isle of Man.
Smartie
Jun 11, 2018, 6:43:05 AM6/11/18
to Weather and Climate
Quite a summer storm brewing for Ireland and NW Scotland as a rapidly-deepening sub-970 (UKMO) low barrels through the Iceland gap
and breaking tthe drought
Trevor Harley
Jun 11, 2018, 1:50:18 PM6/11/18
to Weather and Climate
Unusually we've had several fine sunny days in east Scotland, but inland and the Islands have been the places to be.
In line with that "I suppose that's it for winter now" thread, I suppose that's it for summer now.
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