The next 3 days (Fri/Sat/Sun) forecast maximum temperature for Penzance
UKMO 16C, 15C, 15C (The wind is forecast to be SW to W over Saturday, Sunday, so not even onshore in SE-E facing Penzance/Newlyn.)
BBC 16C 17C 17C
FRI SAT SUN
ACTUAL 17.8C 17.6C, 19.3C (warmest day of 2022)
Rounding to the nearest degree , MetO error -2C, -3C, -4C.
Looking at the UKMO forecast for Penzance @ 09:00 yesterday, the days forecast maximum was still only 15C for Penzance, everywhere else in west Cornwall was higher including the seafront exposed heliport & Lands End (both 16C). It was also predicted to be cloudy cloudy all day, when the satellite imagery showed us well to the south of the solid frontal cloud. In fact prolonged strong sunshine from 11:00 until 17:00. UV hit 8 at Camborne, about as high as it gets. (Warm sector humid air essentially).
It did look as if the maximum would be close to 18C, but mid afternoon the wind veered SW, the air descending from the hills above Newlyn, resulting in a late rise to 19.3C, the warmest day of the year beating 19.1C earlier in the month. The veer in wind was forecast days ago, but no account taken in the temperature forecasts.
There have been problems with wrong grid references being used for 5 day forecasts. E.g. 2 different references used for the Scilly airport & heliport when they are the same place. (I was told this by UKMO, as an explanation as to why the forecasts were different!) Porthmeor (N facing) and Porthminster (east facing). I suggested the person I was dealing with looked at Google Earth. The Penzance forecasts tend so low, I wonder if a grd reference offshore is being used?
Graham
Penzance
On Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 21:01:08 UTC+1 Graham Easterling wrote: