I have done a little analysis to look at the likelihood of the present El Nino affecting our coming winter. As you can see there is absolutely no correlation.
In the 11 episodes, 5 have colder and 6 have warmer winters.
6 have drier winters and 5 have wetter winters.
Clearly there are other drivers which are playing an important part in these latitudes.
LenWembury , SW Devon