A better idea to look at the current radar rainfall picture

[Len W]

UKMO give a 10% chance of rain throughout today in Wembury.

The model output is rubbish as regards rain.

It is a pity the computer has not got eyes and can see the radar rainfall

animation.

[Graham Easterling]

It was the same for forecast Penzance when I looked at 08:00, no grey clouds at all, white clouds this morning the sunny spells. Then I looked out the window - heavy rain by 09:00.

Big enough area of rain for the models to pick up on. By 10:00 the model output had been amended on the forecast to show a single rain drop (30% chance) at 10:00 (the current time). It had been pouring since breakfast. Still pretty heavy, that's 3 hours of continuous rain of at least moderate intensity.

Graham

Penzance

[Julian Mayes]

Why are you bothering to look at the Met office app anyway? - we know what it is like.   

Julian  

Molesey  

[Graham Easterling]

Yes, we know what it's like, but many people use their phones, and plan the day on it.

It's a real issue in Cornwall for people reliant on the beach trade when the app shows rain, the visitors dash off for an exciting day in M&S, and huge amounts of trade is lost on what turns into a sunny day. Not only that but people miss a great day on the beach. In fact, when I had a holiday cottage, I never understood why parents, especially from suburbia, always planned things to such a degree, they missed the best of what Cornwall has to offer, and what the kids really wanted. I felt so sorry for one lad I offered to take him bodyboarding, I've rarely seen someone so excited. 

I remember around 5 or 6 years ago when the head of the MetO was challenged on this issue in Newquay & he promised action. Malcolm Bell, the head of visit Cornwall has taken it up with the MetO on many occasions. The real issue is that in summer much of the precipitation is convectional & inland, especially along the sea breeze front, but the rain risk is typically shown as much the same inland & on the coast, which strikes me as strange. But then again visibility forecasts on the coast don't take into account salt spray, so you get a ludicrous forecast of F7-8 winds & excellent visibility. Yes, I've heard all the excuses as to why, but it's still rubbish. I think it's all such a shame when the model forecasts are so good these days. It seems an complete inability of the app to translate that output into weather where it's accurate for a given location at a given time, which is what it's for. Most on this newsgroup could do a far better ob.

Moan over!

Graham 

[Len W]

I agree with Graham.

The Met O site is often correct. But sometimes it is ridiculous as regards precipitation/cloud.

Are you suggesting Julian no one should look at it?

That is a bit extreme.

Agreed, we are nerds who have a continuing 24 hr interest in the weather and therefore have extra knowledge, but that does not mean we are not interested in what the providers turn out as regards forecasts. Anyway, I am still in education with the U3A and  have a duty to tell it as it is.

Len