Met Office sitting tight

[xmetman]

The Met Office are sitting tight and playing it cool as regards issuing a strong wind warning for either Friday morning or Saturday evening in western parts of the UK. 

I would have laid money on them issuing warnings for both events this morning.

It just seems a little odd when they went to town with low Yap. 

It's all down to impacts though and these coastal sites are use to it. 

The BBC aren't taking and chances when I listened to the forecast this morning, with Simon King mentioning gusts of 45-50 mph or even higher across the country in the next few days.

[Freddie]

On Friday the strongest gradients occur in stable air ahead of the fronts - and it is raining - so I wouldn't anticipate widespread gusty winds.  Over the weekend the gradients look stronger over a wider area on Sunday, so maybe there might be one for that day (when the air is unstable as well).  It's a long way off, though, so probably would wait until nearer the time.

--
Freddie
Dorrington
Shropshire
115m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/statistics/latest.xlsx

[xmetman]

And Saturday evening?

[Freddie]

It's NW Scotland - they're used to it ;-)

On a more serious note - it does depend on which model you look at,as there are differences in timing and areas affected.

--
Freddie

[xmetman]

Never just quite made it - good call by the boys down in Exeter.

[xmetman]

The low never deepened as the ICON model expected it to on Saturday night, and the gusts were like Friday and never quite made it much over 50 MPH - so well done to the Met Office and their model. Oh ye, of little faith.

[Freddie]

They probably saw the Icon run and thought it was at odds with other models (and runs). They are pretty good at identifying trends and picking out hazardous weather that's likely to affect a lot of people. The "great storm" effect?

--
Freddie
Dorrington
Shropshire