Extraordinary forecast for Sunday .17 July

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Tudor Hughes

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Jul 9, 2022, 10:18:21 PMJul 9
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According to GFS the temperature in southern and eastern England is predicted to reach 41-42°C.   These figures easily exceed all known British records and for that reason alone I am highly suspicious of them.  It is well known that GFS is an occasional drama queen anyway.
Have others any comments on these charts?


Tudor Hughes. Warlingham NE Surrey, 557 ft, 170 m.

Graham Easterling

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Jul 10, 2022, 4:49:21 AMJul 10
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I think this is the run you meant

2022-07-10 09_22_12-Capture.png

1 run later

2022-07-10 09_22_41-Capture.png

I think there's big some big variations in many recent runs as to whether the weather will be very warm or extremely hot. (None of this applies to NW Scotland!)

42C does put us into Daily Express territory though. Temperatures of 25C, over the sea half way between Devon & Brittany when the SSTs 17C or so also seem very unlikely.. Normally the temperature is locked pretty much to the SST, even just a few miles offshore.

Graham
Penzance 

Keith (Southend)

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Jul 10, 2022, 5:38:02 AMJul 10
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A number of things do line up if that final outcome chart materialised.

1. It would be the end of a week of hot and dry weather so the ground conditions will be favourable.
2. SST anomalies are about 1-1.5°C above average around our shores and as much as 4 - 5°C p in parts of the Medittearanean Sea.
3. It just takes the sypnotics to line up and it could be a close call the Cambridge record could tumple...

Interesting times whatever.

Keith (Southend)

Len W

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Jul 10, 2022, 7:17:59 AMJul 10
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GFS has been giving this high res forecast for some time. Run from last Sat. shown below
Looked a ridiculous outlier to me but you never know.
Currently for PLYMOUTH UKMO giving 24°C on Sat 16th
BBC/Meteogroup 25°C

Picture1.png

Graham Easterling

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Jul 10, 2022, 7:19:08 AMJul 10
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Back to >40C in the latest run, as Keith says, it's certainly interesting.

Graham
Penzance

Keith (Southend)

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Jul 10, 2022, 3:41:04 PMJul 10
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Even Countryfile/Farming forecast talked of extreme heat next weekend. Still time to fade, but interesting.

Keith (Southend)

Graham Easterling

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Jul 14, 2022, 7:01:42 AMJul 14
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I see the latest GFS run is back to 40C for Monday & Tuesday.

Slipped a day, but otherwise . .

Graham
Penzance where it's a very pleasant 19-20C currently.

On Sunday, 10 July 2022 at 03:18:21 UTC+1 Tudor Hughes wrote:

Tudor Hughes

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Jul 14, 2022, 11:42:54 PMJul 14
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41-42 on the latest for the London area, also Lincs and E Yorkshire.  I wonder.

Tudor 

Len W

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Jul 15, 2022, 5:09:21 AMJul 15
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We are on the edge of amber warning here.
Seems a degree of uncertainty as to how warm it will be on Monday.
Latest forecast issued at 0900 is
 29C from BBC/Meteogroup
26C from UKMO

My record high here in Wembury was 31.5C on 18th July 2006.

Len
SW Devon coast

Graham Easterling

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Jul 15, 2022, 8:49:17 AMJul 15
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The MetO forecast for Penzance is hard to understand (assuming the forecast SLP charts are basically correct).

Met O - 24C     It was 25.6C on 12th, and is heading towards 24C (currently 23.3C) today,  Even the hill top airport on Scilly, out in the Atlantic, reached 25C earlier this week.
BBC/Meteogroup   - 28C
GFS (using Penzance forecast on XCWeather) - 31C

My record high here in Penzance was 29.6C on 17th July 2006. Whether it's beaten depends on the exact track of the wind down the peninsula. It really needs to be ENE, rather than the E-ESE forecast. However the wind often backs from the forecast direction late in the afternoon under the influence of the N coast sea breeze effect.

I would say the Meteogroup prediction looks pretty good, as it normally turns out to be. 

I'm off to Scilly tomorrow, I'm pleased to say.

Graham
Penzance

Graham Easterling

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Jul 18, 2022, 9:57:57 AMJul 18
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Well, the MetO got that wrong,

I’m not in Penzance, but its currently 33C in Plymouth, 32C at St Mawgan and 29C at Lands end.

Well done GFS for spotting it so far in advance

Graham
Scilly. 

Julian Mayes

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Jul 18, 2022, 6:25:42 PMJul 18
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I've only just discovered this thread but it makes fascinating reading today!   Yes, a big success for GFS and most models in fact.   I was following a similar discussion on twitter.  

Julian   

Tudor Hughes

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Jul 18, 2022, 10:52:51 PMJul 18
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26.5°C at 3.15 a.m. (BST) here in the Elevated Surrey Wetlands with a light SE'ly breeze.  The grass is getting quite straw-like and slightly crunchy underfoot.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 557 ft, 170 m

Tudor Hughes

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Jul 19, 2022, 9:32:51 AMJul 19
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Record high min for this place, 24.0°C, beating the previous highest by 3.3 degC.  A statistician may well say "not part of the  population".  Temperature now 37.8°C, also a new record.  Wind S force 3 - 4; quite a breeze but a hot one.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 557 ft, 170 m

Graham Easterling

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Jul 19, 2022, 9:51:04 AMJul 19
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Tremendous thunderstorm here on Scilly between 06:15 and 07:15, best one Ive experienced for many years. Thunder was continuous for around 20 minutes. I dont think that much rain fell, between 5 & 10mm at a guess, but I was half asleep. 

Great youtube video of lightning hitting scaffolding back home in Penzance. Rapid clearance to sunshine around 08:00, temperature in the low 20s behind the storms.

Graham
Scilly

Tudor Hughes

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Jul 19, 2022, 2:00:24 PMJul 19
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A thunderstorm?  You jammy git!

Couldn't find the video on YouTube - have you got the URL?

Max here 38.3°C, a new record by 2.4 degC.  The southerly breeze has dropped out almost entirely and there are 8 oktas of rather vague medium cloud.  Rather gloomy but not sinister.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham

Graham Easterling

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Jul 19, 2022, 3:45:02 PMJul 19
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The video is on several news sites, the URL seems inconsistent. Just google “scaffolding lightning Penzance” There are some good photos of the lightning over Penzance on Cornwall Live.

Here on Scilly almost all the lightning seemed to be cloud to cloud. That evidently  wasn’t the case in Penzance.

Very rapid clearance to sunshine by 09:00, temperatures back to the mid 20s. 

Graham

Tudor Hughes

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Jul 19, 2022, 7:05:11 PMJul 19
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Got it.  Quite a bang, wasn't it.  Shame the camera wasn't pointing directly at the base of the strike.

There was one peal of thunder here at 9.15 pm but one only and no rain.  The temperature has fallen rapidly here in the last few hours but the trouble is the dew-point has come up to nearly meet it, having been quite low during the hot spell (5-10°C).

Tudor

Len W

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Jul 20, 2022, 5:39:27 AMJul 20
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A few peals of thunder here at 11 am.
0.8 mm of rain.

Had record high max of 33.5°C previous day Mon. 18 July.

Len
Wembury

Dave C

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Jul 22, 2022, 6:47:35 AMJul 22
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New record max for me. 39.4C breaking the previous day's new record !
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