Arctic sea ice min higher this year

[Len W]

Does not seem to be as much melt this year compared with last two.

A cooler polar summer obviously.

Len

[Graham Easterling]

This is now completely different to 2 years ago, when to the west of Ireland  (30-40W) the SST was consistently, for a couple of years or so,1-2C below normal.

Over the last year it has gradually changed, now 1-2C above normal. I expect that to drop back a bit when we get a bit more Atlantic activity, but even so that's a very warm N Atlantic by any standards..

Are the 2 changes linked?

Graham

Penzance

[Len W]

Two years ago Sep 2019  anomaly looked like this

Not as warm as this September I grant you.

SST is seasonal in N Atlantic and of course dependent on mid lat depressions and hurricane tracks.

Everything is linked including  polar sea ice extent but in a very non linear way.

Len

Wembury

[Graham Easterling]

Sorry, time flies, you now need to go back 4 years to get the real cool pool, not the couple of years I suggested. It's ben a gradually 'warming' of the pool, as my rather repetitive posts over the last 2 years have pointed out.

Not September, but an anomaly map I saved from the height of the cool pool when forecasters were queuing up to say it was a likely a permanent change, north Atlantic drift / conveyor belt changes and all that..

Different time of year I'll grant you, but the general anomaly pattern persisted month after month for so long I began to doubt my inclinations that it was temporary, due to preceding circulation patterns that had become somewhat self perpetuating. 

Answering my own question, my own feeling is that the Atlantic has been exceptionally quiet for some considerable time. (Hence the diabolical lack of surf, though a change in some recent days) This has probably helped the surface waters become particularly anomalously warm, and may have prevented warm water being pushed into the Arctic during the late Summer early autumn.

Graham

Penzance