MeteoGroup quicker off the mark than Met Office in predicting cold spell

[xmetman]

MeteoGroup quicker off the mark than Met Office in predicting cold spell <link>

[Jack Frost]

It may be true, but until they can predict the weather (well, general climate trends, not necessarily weather) 6 weeks in advance on a regular basis, any correct prediction is still little more than luck. I bet they don't issue press releases every time their 6 week outlook is incorrect!

It's like when the MO issue their long-range forecasts, which are always along the lines of "changeable, with colder wetter conditions in the north west, and drier warmer conditions in the south east". Really? Wow! Who'd have thought! I genuinely don't see the point of these being issued to the public, as they are so vague they are worthless.

Liam

[Jack Harrison]

That was a pat on the back for MeteoGroup but I am unable to find any public forecasts.  Where should I be looking.

Jack

[xmetman]

Because it's a commercial company guidance like that would cost you.

They do front the operations at the BBC, but I can't recall any of the TV presenters there saying it would be a severe end to the month as early as the 9th of February.

You would have thought that because the BBC have bought in their expertise that MeteoGroup might have informed either the weather presenters or the news team of this important news.

[Trevor Harley]

Very interesting though.  This was in the Sunday Times this week, claiming that the Met Office were on the case a month ago at least - I'm not sure how this timing compares.

I don't see the link between the Pacific-Indian ocean activity and the SSW over the north pole, which both claim to be important.

And of course there's the question of what caused the enhanced activity in the Madden-Julian oscillation? Activity at the north pole probably.

[xmetman]

It kind of ties in with the first mention of the news about the imminent SSW in the news release of the 9th, which didn't mention any details of how severe and when it would impact the UK. That didn't make an appearance as far as I can see until a news release on the 16th. The Met Office do have to brief the COBRA committee if any severe weather is expected in medium term.

What does give him away was the 3 month contingency forecast that his team (?) issued on the 26th of February - it was obviously a possibility a SSW might occur - but the seasonal forecasting models gave no warning of it just two weeks before it did. The block then formed by the 22nd and the severe weather followed by the 26th. Our climate models don't seem to be poor at forecasting SSW events it seems.

[Freddie]

The MJO was strong from just after Christmas. It tends to support blocking early in the winter (as well as the weather we saw over North America through January and February. I think that the SST anomaly pattern that Graham (from Bracknell) pointed out to us was acting against any blocking that the MJO was encouraging. In any case it was perhaps too late in the season for MJO-induced blocking. I think the block was induced by the SSW - the timing certainly fits - and I think there was such strength in the SSW that it overcame the influence from SST anomalies.

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Freddie

[Jack Harrison]

10:34 (6 hours ago)

Because it's [MeteoGroup] a commercial company guidance like that would cost you.

As I suspected.  But in any case, would I want all those labels reminding me where I live? :-)

Jack 

[xmetman]

Met Office come out slugging!