When is rain correctly forecast?

48 views
Skip to first unread message

Len

unread,
May 6, 2024, 7:32:14 AMMay 6
to Weather and Climate
At 09.00 the Met Office gave an 80% chance of heavy rain at 11.00 today
at my postcode.
No rain occurred. We have not had a drop all morning.
Would this be categorized as a failed forecast or does the 20% uncertainty null any verification?
I don't think the Met Office do any verification of their houirly rain forecasts.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

Graham Easterling

unread,
May 6, 2024, 11:45:48 AMMay 6
to Weather and Climate
I always have a problem with % rain chance forecasts.
i
If you have a 50% chance of rain for 4 consecutive hours, surely you'd expect rain on 2 of them, if not it's wrong (one way or the other).

It's one area where I preferred the old system, scattered showers, frequent heavy showers, that sort of thing.

No rain here today, in fact only 0.8mm so far this month.

Graham
Penzance

Len

unread,
May 7, 2024, 12:23:17 PMMay 7
to Weather and Climate
We had a thunderstorm at 17:00 yesterday. Stair rods and 8 mm in 15 mins.
Thunderstorms were in the forecast although not exactly where or when the would occur in this part of Devon.

Len

Graham Easterling

unread,
May 7, 2024, 3:46:12 PMMay 7
to Weather and Climate
I noticed that storm on the radar, right over Wembury!

Graham

Reply all
Reply to author
Forward
0 new messages