When is rain correctly forecast?

[Len]

At 09.00 the Met Office gave an 80% chance of heavy rain at 11.00 today

at my postcode.

No rain occurred. We have not had a drop all morning.

Would this be categorized as a failed forecast or does the 20% uncertainty null any verification?

I don't think the Met Office do any verification of their houirly rain forecasts.

Len

Wembury, SW Devon

[Graham Easterling]

I always have a problem with % rain chance forecasts.

i

If you have a 50% chance of rain for 4 consecutive hours, surely you'd expect rain on 2 of them, if not it's wrong (one way or the other).

It's one area where I preferred the old system, scattered showers, frequent heavy showers, that sort of thing.

No rain here today, in fact only 0.8mm so far this month.

Graham

Penzance

[Len]

We had a thunderstorm at 17:00 yesterday. Stair rods and 8 mm in 15 mins.

Thunderstorms were in the forecast although not exactly where or when the would occur in this part of Devon.

Len

[Graham Easterling]

I noticed that storm on the radar, right over Wembury!

Graham