El Niño hangs on into May

[xmetman]

The latest El Niño (for region 3.4) which started back in March 2015 continues into what is highly likely to be its final month of May 2016 according to the latest Oceanic Niño Index [ONI] figures that have just been released. I say that because the ONI is a three-month running mean, and the latest value for region 3.4 during May was +0.30°C which is below the 0.5°C threshold and markedly down on the +1.09°C of the previous month. That's a duration of 15 months, which could have easily have been four months longer if it weren't for a stalled start in had. Despite this it still makes it the second longest El Niño in the current series back to 1950, and it also had the highest anomaly of +2.3 of any other event. That still might only make it the second warmest behind the 1997-98 event, but as with everything to do with these cycles it may be down to which region and what algorithm you use to decide these things. It's interesting to see the cold waters spread across the equator from east to west and splitting the anomalously warm water of the central Pacific ocean.

[Paul Garvey]

Thanks Bruce. Yes. The second warmest El Nino event even since 1950, but global temperatures have been hugely at record levels. Had there been no global warming 1998-2016, the outcomes of this second warmest El Nino since 1950 would have produced global temperatures for 2015 at levels similar to 1998 at best. The fact that it didn't shows clearly that global warming continues apace. 

[Joe]

Bruce, I saw a very recent forecast re La Nina that suggested, if it is recorded, that it will be a weak affair?

It is only a forecast update however and who really knows!?

Must go digging to find the link.

I'll be back.... 😉

Joe

[Paul Garvey]

Possibly true, Joe - and such a prediction appears more likely than not,  though there are a host of bodies who issue predictions and they do vary widely. Scroll through the NOAA Monday update. You'll find the slide. My comp has given up displaying the slide number!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf