Global cooling

[Len W]

Can this be true?

Sourced from Twitter.

[Trevor Harley]

Who are we to argue with data?

Why shouldn't it be true? It's a small window.

[Tudor Hughes]

On Tuesday, 5 February 2019 12:57:20 UTC, Trevor Harley wrote:

Who are we to argue with data?

Why shouldn't it be true? It's a small window.

I agree - it's a very small window.  Also the source appears to be METARs, which are not always exactly rigorous and reported to the nearest whole degC.

Tudor Hughes, War;ingham, NE Surrey

[Julian Mayes]

-0.4C anomaly eh ?  In relation to which averaging period?    

Julian   

[Len W]

We are not told the averaging period that the anomalies are taken from.

-0.4 degC is average anomaly over the 4 yr period.

It is indeed a short period.

The accompanying graph is for anomalies from 1951-1980, itself a questionable period, but better than not giving the info about ref. period.

It seems there is some cherry picking going on, fake news and/or trumped up news?

The graph below does give some credence to there being a bit of a global cooling in the last few years.

The data here are from NOAA

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Len

Wembury

[Stephen Davenport]

If there's no averaging period stated then the graph is worthless, never mind that four years is far too short a sample to be meaningful anyway. Which Twitter account was this from, I wonder?


Stephen
Indianapolis, IN.

[Paul Garvey]

It'll help someone to demonstrate the earth is getting cooler. 😂😂😂😂😂

The short answer is of course not. The data set is only 4 years and who knows where the average is taken from! 

[Graham Easterling]

The top graph states that 2015-2018 was 0.4C colder than the average. I can't identify any averaging period, however short, that would give that result!

Graham

Penzance

[Len]

Confusing I will agree. It's all a bit fishy. Might even have taken one short warmer period as reference.

We do not know what the anomalies are taken from but as I understand,

if you take an average of the anomalies as shown between Jan 2015 and Jan 2019

you come up with -0.4 °C.

Len

Wembury

[Julian Mayes]

It's surely not confusing for us - it may be for the general public though, and of course misleading too.  Very unlikely for there to have been any short warmer period - unless it is from within the period since 2015!    To answer your original question, yes, I think roughly it is fairly believable -  It seems to match fairly well the 'officially accepted' global temp series from various orgs. But that's not really the point is it? 

See for example   http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/      The HADCRUT4 temp series (the British one) which is always displayed on the CRU homepage.  The only discrepancy is that 2016 was the hottest year on the whole series whereas in the twitter graph 2015 looks rather warmer. 

And if you want to check some of the other global series, without wishing to suggest I read the Quarterly Journal (I cannot understand most of the article titles!) there is a relevant article by Simmons et al 2017  (QJ v 143, issue 702, 101-119 which can be found at  https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2949   and is open access to all. The figure reproduced on that page says it all.......

so, the point is....we must look at the last 150 years before coming to any conclusions about the last three!!   The last three years still represents an astonishing peak in global temperatures and the 'cool' 2018 was warmer than anything experienced up until 2014....see https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/~timo/diag/tempts_decadesmooth_global.png

We still do not know whose twitter account this is from. Do you know, Len? 

Julian Mayes     Molesey      Surrey    

[Paul Garvey]

Perhaps a better way of seeing how the world has warmed:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47144058

[Keith (Southend)]

This just came up on my twitter feed.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1093198109440724993

Keith (Southend)

[Len]

It's wonderful my post engaged so many people.

The twitter feed the graphic came from is given below.

It will keep you entertained for hours but do n't forget to post here. You must limit your screen time.

;-()

https://twitter.com/hashtag/PolarVortex?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.markvoganweather.com%2F2017%2F11%2F27%2Fgreenland-warms-nearly-40c-as-textbook-aonao-develops-cold-times-ahead-for-uk%2F

Len

Wembury

[Stephen Davenport]

Do you have a direct link to the Tweet in question? That’s not one feed, it’s a long list of tweets with the hashtag #polarvortex. It’ll take us an age to scroll through those to find that graph (and I wonder why it would use that hashtag anyway?)

Thanks,

Stephen
Indianapolis, IN.

[Len]

It' s a while ago now.

Can't find it myself.

That's twitter for you.

[Len]

Found it.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyfP2ZlX4AEnO9p.jpg

Here is the origin of twitter post

Len

[Brian Wakem]

Essentially they say they calculate the Earth's temperature using *unadjusted* observations.

So they are taking a dig at all of the magic adjustments that many climate scientists make.

According to their website, each of the last 4yrs has been below average.

The mean is a '30 year mean', but doesn't state which 30 years.

http://temperature.global/

[Stephen Davenport]

Thanks very much for finding that, Len. Appreciated. I guess it’s exactly the sort of cherry-picking, obfuscating account I might have expected. And there’s no explanation anywhere that I can see of the base period against which this -0.4 anomaly is allegedly set. Nor of the specifics of the data set.

Thanks,

Stephen
Indianapolis IN.