Forecast v weather

[Graham Easterling]

Penzance - Forecast at 13:05

It's currently (13:10) sunny and 13C

Looking to the west - Sennen, 1 mile from Lands End

In case you were wondering, the forecast for Sennen for noon (when I looked at 10:30) was 70% chance of rain and a black cloud.

I realise there's showers approaching Scilly, and tracking to the south, but it's a very pessimistic forecast.

We've had nothing like the amount of rain that has fallen in east Cornwall & Devon recently, assuming David Braine's figures are vaguely representative.

Graham

Penzance

[Len]

Funny you should mention David Braine (BBC Spotlight SW TV). I emailed him on Wednesday when he gave a figure of 80 mm over two days with no reference to where except the SW, asking him where this figure was from. Next evening he duely put up rain figures for the last 3 days from a few places.

An improvement. Although Exmoor and Dartmoor are a bit vague. He gets his figures from UKMO and Env. Agency raingauges.

I have had 64 mm over 3 days to 9th in Wembury, SW Devon.

Len

Wembury

[Len]

Correction:

It was actually Thursday when I emailed him.

[Graham Easterling]

I record 09:00-09:00, but even taking the 4 days to 09:00 today, my total is 41.7mm, 43.3mm for the month up to 09:00 today.

He is always a bit careless with his figures. He once gave sunshine figures for Penzance which interested me, as I'd never found any in recent years. I asked and it was Cury on the Lizard. He thought it was 'near enough', I'd disagree. If he wanted to give the nearest place viewers might have heard of he could have said Helston, or near Culdrose.

After all on 18th July 2017 Penzance recorded >200mm in <3 hours, oh no, that was Coverack. Penzance was completely dry.

Graham

Penzance

On Saturday 10 February 2024 at 16:38:57 UTC Len wrote:

[Nick Gardner]

Dry until the 7th then 45.2 mm since.

Been rather a balmy start to February too with my mean maximum (1st - 11th) at 13.1°C and a mean of 10.1°C.

I've given up watching 'legacy' media and a nicer life it is without it. So David Braine is still doing the rounds. I remember his sloppy use of data and he got his knuckles wrapped a few times by viewers as he seemed to take any bit of data and didn't check whether it was likely to be representative in any way and apply it as a default for the whole region. Good to see he's still doing it.

Nick

Otter Valley, Devon.