The blocks are on at the start of October...

xmetman

unread,

Sep 30, 2016, 9:23:04 AM9/30/16

to Weather and Climate

The first week of October looks fairly well blocked over the British Isles, with maybe a couple of days with warm southerlies and a bit of an indian summer.

According to the GFS the low pressure over Scandinavia will steadily fill as pressure steadily rises and by Tuesday there's a fairly substantial anticyclone lying across Norway and Sweden,

Now into the realms of science fiction...

We shall see.

Paul Garvey

unread,

Sep 30, 2016, 9:39:07 AM9/30/16

to Weather and Climate

Yes, I've been watching this scenario develop too. Could be a warm start to October!

xmetman

unread,

Oct 1, 2016, 4:17:50 AM10/1/16

to Weather and Climate

Stephen Davenport

unread,

Oct 1, 2016, 12:09:19 PM10/1/16

to Weather and Climate

On Friday, September 30, 2016 at 9:23:04 AM UTC-4, xmetman wrote:

The first week of October looks fairly well blocked over the British Isles, with maybe a couple of days with warm southerlies and a bit of an indian summer... <snip>

=========

Indeed. You can see it beginning to take shape with a nice Omega block developing over the British Isles by tomorrow, Sunday October 2nd.

The long wave pattern then gradually shifts eastwards through subsequent days and HP strengthens over Scandinavia, a corollary to central/eastern Atlantic troughing sharpening and digging south - in turn in reaction to extension of high pressure northeastwards across New England and the Canadian Maritimes to the right of deepening Hudson Bay low pressure and southward trough.

Later next week a change could be dependent on the exact track Hurricane Matthew takes, potentially forcing an extension to the Azores High and upper troughing to the east of that across or just west / southwest of the UK. There's also another disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles to keep an eye on.

Stephen

Indianapolis IN

Smartie

unread,

Oct 2, 2016, 4:15:45 AM10/2/16

to Weather and Climate

For the NAWDEX campaign weather regime probabilistic forecasts from the EC EPS are available here-

http://www.cnrm-game-meteo.fr/recyf//spip.php?article141&lang=en

this currently suggests the Scandinavian block will be short-lived, unsurprising at this time of year. Presumably poleward movement of Matthew will have downstream impacts in the medium range.

xmetman

unread,

Oct 3, 2016, 5:43:42 AM10/3/16

to Weather and Climate

Smartie

The block might last longer than NAWDEX think.

The latest GFS run maintains a good block out to at least T+192 (OGIMET won't give anymore!).

Those are sub 540 thicknesses pushing into eastern regions, which may produce wintry precipitation on some of the highest ground and make it raw in eastern counties.

Bruce.

xmetman

unread,

Oct 4, 2016, 2:59:56 AM10/4/16

to Weather and Climate

This is T+192 for next Wednesday from the latest midnight run of the GFS on the 4th of October and still blocked in an anticyclonic NE'ly.

This really is quite a cold trough with a large area of sub 540 thicknesses and a big push of warm air towards the pole which is very reminiscent of last winter.

Scott Whitehead

unread,

Oct 4, 2016, 4:06:03 AM10/4/16

to Weather and Climate

Is there any way we can bank this week's synoptic charts and bring them back in January? :)

Paul Garvey

unread,

Oct 4, 2016, 2:46:43 PM10/4/16

to Weather and Climate

I've certainly said that several times! ❄️☃️🌨

Richard Dixon

unread,

Oct 4, 2016, 6:07:06 PM10/4/16

to Weather and Climate

On Tuesday, 4 October 2016 09:06:03 UTC+1, Scott Whitehead wrote:

Is there any way we can bank this week's synoptic charts and bring them back in January? :)

The good old "if only it were January". Peter* looks like he'll develop into a belter - a right old textbook high with a loooong easterly track on its southern side. We can hark back to this image when it's blow an 11c westerly in January.

Surface pressure ECMWF Th 06.10.2016 12 GMT