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Graham Easterling

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Apr 4, 2023, 7:17:05 AM4/4/23
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There's a few runs now that have picked up on this

2023-04-04 12_14_18-Capture.png

OK, it's a week off, so everything might change, but I'm curious to know what the models are picking up on to predict an unusually deep depression for mid April. I assume it's related to the blocked pattern we are rather stuck in.

Graham
Penzance

Freddie

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Apr 4, 2023, 12:03:54 PM4/4/23
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Hard to tell from a single chart, but deep lows like that are usually the result of a strong jet stream, not blocking.  Looking at the temperature contrast on that chart to the south and south-west of the low, I think there's probably a strong jet there, running WNW->ESE.  But like I say, it's difficult to tell from a single chart.

It's strong jets in April that are unusual in our part of the world - which is likely the cause of the lack of deep April lows.

Stephen Davenport

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Apr 6, 2023, 11:51:06 AM4/6/23
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Indeed. Cold air moving out of eastern Canada is setting up a strong temperature gradient and consequently a strong jet over the Atlantic, as the ECMWF shows here in the preceding day.

jet.png

Graham Easterling

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Apr 7, 2023, 4:23:20 AM4/7/23
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Thankyou both.

I appreciate that the strong temperature gradient would likely lead to the development of deep depressions, it's the way that models can forecast the development of a specific deep depression a week off that impresses me. 

Graham
Penzance - Lovely morning after a cold night - min 2.7C.

Ashley haworth-roberts

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Apr 7, 2023, 8:26:10 AM4/7/23
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Might even become a named storm (Antoni).
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