Here we go again - bash the forecasters.

[jack.h...@gmail.com]

"Ministers scrambled to play down rising fears over blackouts this winter today amid complaints that the Met Office failed to give enough warning about the severe cold snap. old snap."  Daily Mail quote.

Many will think that the forecasters did a superb job.  If you look at the synoptic charts in isolation, it is unlikely that (even in winter) you would anticipate it being so cold.  Yet the forecasters used far more data and in my view, got it spot on.

The current thaw was predicted many days ago.  However, I would have thought that the warmer air over the cold surface is the perfect recipe for advection fog.  There is indeed some this morning but I never heard it mentioned in public forecasts.

Jack

[Graham Easterling]

I think the main problem is that although the model output is often quite remarkably accurate, sometimes for many days ahead, the weather presenters do a pretty poor job of interpreting it for the general public.

So, on yesterday's early evening forecast we were told, that heavy rain in the SW combined with SNOW MELT could lead to some flooding. If we take Devon, Avon, Dorset Somerset  & Cornwall as being the SW there was no snow to melt. (I await someone pointing out a small patch of snow on the top of Dartmoor to prove me wrong!) 

There are many stock phrases they come out with which are either garbage (like gale force gusts) or are endlessly repeated inaccurate generalisations. A pet one in the SW forecast being "sunnier where sheltered from the wind, always cloudier in the exposed west". In practice even in a moist SW wind it often takes uplift to thicken the cloud, and many spots rarely get sea fog, there are just a few prone locations. So exposed western coasts of Cornwall (and indeed Pembroke) do well. 

Graham

Penzance (currently 14.5C)

[jack.h...@gmail.com]

I said in an earlier thread that if the public loses faith in weather forecasts then inevitably it will be less willing to put money into forecasting services.   It seems very easy to dupe the public into believing almost anything these days.  I could argue that the fact that since religion has lost its power over people, the media has taken over and many today believe what they read in the way that they would mindlessly believe the preacher in the past. 

For example Meghan and Harry are now considered to be utterly beyond the pale because of media pressure.  I'm not saying that I am a fan of the couple but the way they are hounded is not acceptable: public opinion is being controlled by a handful of people.  The same with weather forecasting.  If there’s a public perception that it is a waste of time, it won't get the financing it needs.

Twitter was started as a way of chatting - informal gossip - with your friends online but it’s taken over and I am of the opinion that the fact that politicians use Twitter to push their agendas is an absolute joke.  I’m unwilling to be persuaded by media pressure any more than ever be persuaded by religious dogma

I don't offer solutions.  But I really do fear that Orwell's 1984 has become reality without most people actually realising it

Jack

[Graham Easterling]

It just so happens I've just finished reading Animal Farm. I originally read it when it was part of my 'O' Level English Literature syllabus back in 1967 (give or take a year).

I'm also a bit of a vinyl fan, & also recently played Who's Next, which includes the track, Won't get fooled again' one of Pete Townsends first forays into political statement and is actually very similar to Animal Farm.   

A change, it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the fold, that's all
And the world looks just the same
And history ain't changed
'Cause the banners, they all flown in the last war

I'll tip my hat to the new Constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again, no, no

I'll move myself and my family aside
If we happen to be left half-alive
I'll get all my papers and smile at the sky
For I know that the hypnotized never lie

Do you?

There's nothing in the street
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are effaced, by-the-bye
And the parting on the left
Is now parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight

Yeah
Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss

(Sorry Freddie at least it started with weather)

Graham

[Freddie]

:D :D

[Ashley haworth-roberts]

Either the Met Office amber warning for upland ice accretion and black ice in northern England in particular was slightly pessimistic - or nobody ventured out because of the warnings or because it was Sunday or because of an afternoon football match on TV. But apparently the Mail on Sunday - the voice of the present Government - think the severity of the recent freeze was not sufficiently well predicted (I've not read this yet): https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/ (18 December)

[Ken Cook]

The amber warning from the Met Office was excellent and most locals took notice of it here in upland Teesdale / Weardale. People in this area are far more likely to listen to Met Office warnings than believe what is written in the press. They well remember the accurate red warning a year ago for Storm Arwen which cut power for five days. The amber ice warning was heeded and most stayed indoors as Copley was like an ice rink and very dangerous. Several came home early and others cancelled evenings out. There was very little traffic. Power went off overnight because of the ice accretion onto cables, but we tend to be prepared for such things here.

Well done Met Office, again.

Ken

Copley, 253metres asl

Teesdale / Weardale watershed

[jack.h...@gmail.com]

The MailOnline - recommended as a comic and not for news - has just published this:

"But forecasters are now warning that the country could see a major winter blast blow in from the Arctic, with winds as cold as -11C."  

For info, the wind here at the moment is probably below 3C and the temperature is around 4 knots.

Jack

[Tudor Hughes]

Not just the MailOnline, Jack.  The Daily Express has the same forecast but a quick look at the forecast charts from both the Met Office and GFS shows no sign of this.  It looks breezy, a little wet and fairly mild for at least a week.  The Express is well known in these columns for its ludicrous hyperbole and it has been taken for granted that anything it says should not be taken seriously.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 557 ft, 170 m.

[jack.h...@gmail.com]

I am currently reading "Alice through the Looking Glass".  It isn't just a children's book - far from it. 
This (extract) was written by Lewis Carroll more than 150 years ago.

Jack

[Julian Mayes]

The issue in the Mail's story was the seasonal forecasting of the cold event this month rather than short term forecasting  - the contingency planners forecast for example.   The Met Office winter forecast did give a higher than evens risk of cold weather and many winter forecasts highlighted the risk being greatest in December.  

On Ken's point, the MO severe weather warnings are the tip of the iceberg in terms of information given by all forecasting organisations - but this information is given on a commercial basis whether it be from the MO or from the private sector  - the garbage in the press is given by anyone - for free publicity.  You get what you pay for.   The usually excellent LBC radio pumps out drivel on twitter - 2 days ago raising fears of an arctic blast comparable with the Beat from the East!    I asked them to give their source - but you don't get replies from organisations on twitter.  Of course the Daily Mail readers believe the nonsense too - so as the subject-line states, they will bash the forecasters in a day or two.  

The MO gave a good insight into their severe weather warning methodology in the December RmetS meeting particularly in terms of the matrix of likelihood of event v severity / impact.    

Julian    

[jack.h...@gmail.com]

I rather like the Daily Mail not for its factual content but as a form of light entertainment.  An adult comic in all but name.

I have just read:

"Once-in-a-generation -70F bomb cyclone lashes the US with Midwest colder than MARS"

adding

"157,668 people had power outages in Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi and Louisiana"

The degree of precision -157,668 people - is truly impressive.  Are they certain they hadn't missed Granny who is staying for Christmas?

Jack

[Len W]

Lovely reference to Mars.

The Daily Mail is educating the masses that it is cold on Mars.

Not a lot of people know that.

Len