WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, January 3, 2026; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

January Thaw Will Lead To January Freeze And Major Storm; Just Give It Time!

CIMSS (2)

NOHRSC (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com  (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)

NOAA/PSL/WEATHERAmerica (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (8)

If you know, and use, synoptic climatology for the month of January, you know that there is often a major warm-up across the lower 48 states (less noticeable in Canada and Mexico) in Weeks 2 and/or 3, followed by a sudden collapse back into harsh cold with a winter storm at some point after January 20. Very cold air has controlled the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, New England and Mid-Atlantic states as we enter the new year. The West, Great Plains/Texas and Dixie have had shorter-duration impact cold intrusions, but have averaged in some cases well above seasonal normals. If you take a snapshot and comparison for 500MB heights, precipitation and temperature for December, the season analog choices were almost a direct match. It was somewhat colder in the Canadian section of the outline, but storm track paths and general weather were almost a direct match. Might that mean we should continue to look at the rest of January having a turn to extreme cold with a a cAk motherlode between James Bay and the Soo Locks?

That is the direction I am heading, with the argument that the general warming in Week 2 in the USA will be followed by a particularly strong winter storm in Texas/Louisiana on January 13 that moves north and east and undergoes possible bombogenesis over or off of the Delmarva Peninsula around January 15. Combining with the 500MB vortex, wind, snow and cold should fill in across the eastern 2/3 of the nation; note the ridging into Alaska and Greenland. I stress that the timing and exact trajectory of this projected system will not be certain for a few days worth of projections. But given the roughly 2 in 3 risk factor with such strong model agreement, we could get out of the Thaw pattern just after the disturbance rolls up into Quebec.

There is a fair chance that the active subtropical jet stream, with a vast closed upper low off of Baja California may eject more energy into the southern tier states about 5 to 7 days after the event that I have described. We may be moving out of the La Nina episode toward a neutral ENSO, with a weak El Nino arriving this summer. The southern branch could be very intense, and while occurring in a multiple blocking pattern with a vast snow cover, could prove bewildering to Texas and the Deep South. The West may be mostly mild and dry should the disturbance in question stay at low latitudes (unlike the most recent trough that inundated the West Coast). An early peek at February seems to favor a mostly cold northern two-thirds of the U.S. vs. a mild Deep South, but again the analog predictions were mostly quite cold east of the Continental Divide.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 10:15 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove

All rights reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author.