WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, August 27, 2006 at 4:30 A.M. ET
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WEATHER SUMMARY THROUGH NEXT 72
HOURS
While many are focused on developments with Tropical Storm Ernesto in the Caribbean Sea, severe weather and flooding threats pose a very real and current danger in the U.S. One system over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is tapping a very hot, humid air mass; intense convection will fire across the Northeast with a focus at the triple point of frontal structure in S NY....PA....NJ. With so much moisture to work with, flooding rains are as much of a concern as severe weather, with the impulse not exiting the shoreline of the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions until Monday night.
A "left-behind" segment of the northeastern U.S. trough will also present a convective threat to portions of the Great Plains. This diffuse shortwave has enough cold air aloft and some manner of upslope flow present to trigger significant risks for hail, heavy rain, microbursts, and even an isolated tornado as it shifts slowly eastward toward the Mississippi Valley during the near term. Reaching Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday, excessive rains and severe thunderstorms may target the Interstate 81 and 95 corridors, generally along and below the Mason-Dixon line.
Hot temperatures are still an issue as we enter the last days of August. The build-up of heat across the Intermountain Region and Dixie should ease by 72 hours. A strong shortwave over the Gulf of Alaska will approach the Pacific Northwest on Day 3, while the moderated cP regime in the Upper Midwest should make inroads into the Old South. The leading edge of the somewhat cooler air may play a pivotal role in how Tropical Storm Ernesto approaches the Gulf Coast sometime later this week.
Short-Range Numerical Weather
Prediction Models
(red dot
indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
RUC NAM GFS-5 RGEM. MM5 UKMET.
CRAS SREF COAMPS RAMS
The
Weather Research And Forecasting Model Website
National Centers for Environmental
Prediction Models
Texas A&M Weather
Interface
______________________________________________________________________
Online Weather Discussions And
Forums
U.S. & World Weather Forums
CanadianWeather.org - Forecasts, Charts and Community
Forums
Online Weather Information
Guides
AMS Glossary WW2010 Helper Section
Index
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COMET Case Study Library on the WWW
Climate Normals For The U.S.
Golden Gate Weather ENSO
Page
Weather Information
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nowCOAST: GIS Mapping
Portal
NOAA Internal Experimental Winter Weather Impact
Graphics
The Weather Forecaster Web
Page
Plymouth State Weather
Center
Dr. Bob Hart's
Coolwx.com
U.S.
National Satellite Perspectives
Next-Generation Weather Satellite Demonstration
Project
Infrared Visible Vapor
Hawaii Infrared Hawaii Visible
Alaska Infrared Alaska Visible Alaska
Vapor
Canada Satellite
Perspectives
Environment Canada Satellite Image
Directory
Satellite Animations And
Multi-Channel Imagery
RAMSDIS ONLINE
NOAA Polar Satellite
Views Around North America
Quicklook Swaths
Browser
AVHRR Dynamic Tracking Windows
Milan Konecny's NOAA Satellite Views
Savannah-Weather.Com
NOAA HRPT Weather Satellite Images
National Radar
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Links To Current Weather Conditions
Around
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MeL: Space &
Astronomy
SpaceWeather.Com
Tonight's Sky Sky & Telescope Interactive Sky
Chart
Human Space Flight - NASA-TV Solar
Terrestrial Activity Report
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Near Real-Time Polar
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Upper Air Analyses
Around North America
Upper Air Data From University Of
Wyoming
Aviation Weather
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Soundings from Commercial
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Aviation Weather Center
(AWC)
ORA Projects Page
ADDS - Turbulence
Environment Canada Aviation
Products
National Soil
Moisture Levels
Palmer Index Map (For Soil Moisture)
Drought Monitor
___________________________________________________________________________
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging
winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more
total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
(probable trajectory for Tropical Storm Ernesto affecting populous sections of the United States and Canada)
______________________________________________________________________
AWC National Convective Weather Forecast Product
Oklahoma University Daily Real Time Analysis And Forecast System
Experimental 0-3 Hour Convective Weather Forecast Products
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
Environment Canada Severe Weather Model
Severe Weather Watch Boxes
SPC Watch, Warning and Advisory Display
Local Weather Warnings
College Of DuPage Severe Weather Warnings Page
U.S. Station Weather Probability Forecasts
READY - State Weather
NAM MOS Graphics NGM MOS Graphics
Form For Selecting AVN MOS Bulletins NAM Precip Type Meteograms
______________________________________________________________________
Visible, Infrared, And Water Vapor
High Resolution Satellite And Radar Views:
University Of Washington Weather Graphics Loops
IPS Meteostar
Regional Radar Summaries
Northeast
Southeast
North Central
South Central
Northwest
Southwest
Useful
Television Station And Commercial
Doppler Radar Sites
WeatherMatrix Radar Supersite : TV
Radars
Doppler Radar Images From Government Sources
National Weather Service Doppler
Radars
Environment Canada Doppler
Radars
Experimental
Radar Images From The National Weather Service
National
Lightning Detection Map
StrikeStar US
Experimental Lightning Location
Network
Environment Canada Lightning
Map
BARBADOS Worthing VIRGIN ISLANDS St. Croix
Media Resources, Online Mapping And Travel AidsKevin Brewster Storm Spotting Frequencies Page
TV Station Web Page Directory Radio-Locator
National Traffic and Road Closure Information Traffic Reports Gas Prices MapQuest Windows Live Local Microsoft TerraServer Google Earth
The National Atlas of the United States of America
Where On Earth - Latitude Longitude Finder
Map-It - A GMT3 Map Generator
MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next
6 to 10 days)
I distrust the
most recent output of the numerical models, and not just because of confusing
signals regarding Tropical Storm Ernesto. One concern is teleconnections; with a
classic +AO signal in place with a cA vortex very near the North Pole, one would
expect to see a series of strong shortwaves flowing through a semizonal jet
stream running close to 55 N Latitude about the Northern Hemisphere. Most of the
numerical models are closing off the impulses, one in central Canada and another
in NL/LBR, by 120 hours. The resultant ridging in between the two storms brings
very high surface pressures to the Great Lakes and Northeast, presenting an
effective block to a poleward motion of Ernesto.
On the idea that Ernesto does not cut across Cuba and instead makes landfall in the FL Panhandle (still open to debate), the 0z Aug 28 ECMWF scenario of the tropical cyclone becoming enmeshed with a weakness appears viable. But I do not yet accept the Day 7 position of the storm over the Outer Banks of NC. Rather, a path into GA and then C NC (Close to Charlotte) is suspected. With an upslope (and steep) pressure gradient, the possibility of an excessive rainfall event is present from N FL....GA....W, C SC....W, C NC....W VA....E TN for at least part of the Labor Day weekend.
Medium Range Numerical Weather Prediction
Models
(red dot indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
GFS UKMETx ECMWF NOGAPS GGEM MM5x KMA RSM JMA CPTEC GBL Ensembles DGEX EPS Maps
NCEP AVN-GFS
Ensembles NOGAPS Ensembles WRF Hemispheric
Medium Range NWP Verification
Statistics
Climate Prediction Center - D+8 Upper Air
Tools
______________________________________________________________________
Worldwide and International Satellite
Images
Earth Viewer: View Any Location from Any
Satellite
______________________________________________________
GOES 12 (The
Americas, Atlantic Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
GOES 10 (Eastern
Pacific Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
GMS 5 (Asia,
Australia, Pacific Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
METEOSAT 5
(Central Asia)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
METEOSAT 7
(Europe And Africa)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
Arctic Sea
Europe Infrared Europe Visible Europe Vapor
Russia The Middle East The Orient India
Australia New Zealand South America Africa
Antarctica
______________________________________________________________________
International Weather Radar Sites
WeatherMatrix Radar Supersite : World Radar
Data
Domestic And
International Weather Cameras
EarthCam
- Webcam Network
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
(information and forecasts of
warm-core or subtropical features)
Ernesto, as they
say, is still not out of the woods yet. Shear is still present in the form of
two TUTT signatures to the north and west of the tropical storm, and it seems
likely now that at least part of the circulation of Ernesto will pass close to
or over the island of Cuba. There are very warm SSTs near the tropical cyclone,
however, and if at least one of the upper level lows moves out of the way or
dissipates, hurricane strength could be achieved shortly. In figuring out the
motion of Ernesto, I took an average of the tropical and baroclinic models
through 120 hours, then extrapolated from the landfall point. It appears that we
will have a minimal hurricane by 48 hours, but any real explosive growth will
wait until Ernesto emerges over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. I
favor a moderately strong heat ridge along and to the right of the FL Peninsula.
As Ernesto travels into a weakness, a northward turn into the western Panhandle
counties of the Sunshine State appears likely. Landfall projections at this
point seem to center on Day 6, or Friday.
As for future tropical cyclone possibilities in the Atlantic Basin, there are currently few. All computer forecasts point toward a conjoined, and strong, Azores/Saharan heat ridge. This would have the effect of driving a huge layer of hot, dusty air from the Sahel westward, eliminating tropical waves that emerge off of the African coastline above 15 N Latitude. Percolations along the ITCZ that stay closer to the equator may survive (much like Ernesto did), but only about 1 in a family of 4 impulses present a potential threat for warm-core cyclogenesis through September 6.
Satellite Images Of Individual Tropical
Systems
NRL Monterey Tropical Cyclone
Page
QuikSCAT
Satellite Images Of
Tropical Regions
GHCC - Interactive GOES-8 Infrared Hurricane
Sector
Atlantic Basin Satellite Services Division - Tropical Atlantic Satellite
Imagery
Mexico And Pacific Coastal
Waters
Central Pacific Ocean
Oceania And Tropical Western Pacific
Ocean
Indian Ocean
Digital Typhoon:
Typhoon Images and Information
Tropical Meteorology Links
National Hurricane
Center / Tropical Prediction Center
CIMSS
Sea
Surface Temperatures
NODC Coastal Water Temperature
Guide
Great
Lakes Sea Grant Coastwatch Homepage
NCODA Sea Surface
Temperatures
NCODA Sea Surface Temperature
Anomaly
NCODA Sea Surface Temperature
Climatology
Marine Weather
Information
WWW Tide/Current Predictor - Site
Selection
Office of Coast Survey - Home - Nautical
Charts
Regional Ocean Forecast System
(ROFS)
NOAA/NCEP WAM Global Swell
Data
Environment Canada Ocean Wave
Forecasts
NOAA WAVEWATCH III Wave Models
(interactive)
Great Lakes Water
Levels
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE
on
Sunday, August 27, 2006 at 4:30 A.M.
ET
Disclaimer:
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be
construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not
affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is
not responsible for content posted or associated with those
sites.
Copyright 2006 by Larry Cosgrove
All rights
reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in
whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the
author.