TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | How the Atlantic Ocean Circulation Has Changed over the Last 12,000 Years Heidelberg University - 14 August 2025 A research team is the first to calculate the large-scale circulation patterns of the Holocene, and their reconstruction shows that while the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation experienced natural fluctuations over millennia, it remained stable for long periods of time. |
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| | Yale Climate Connections - 13 August 2025Human-caused climate change from burning fossil fuels may be involved in a persistent tilt toward dry patterns, according to a new study. |
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| | Surging Himalayan Rivers Bring Benefits and Risks to Local Communities American Geophysical Union - 13 August 2025 Rapidly melting glaciers are surging water volume in at least 10% of rivers in High Mountain Asia, according to a new study, and while communities that depend on the rivers for power could benefit, additional sediment carried in the water may clog infrastructure. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
C, C MB....W ON
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
SW MN....SE SD....E NE....SW IA....W MO....E KS....C, E OK....C, E TX
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
AZ....NM....S CO
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
C, S FL
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
C, S MB....W ON
(QPF 1 - 2")
Isolated Locations In
SW MN....SE SD....E NE....SW IA....W MO....E KS....C, E OK....C, E TX
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
AZ....NM....S CO
(QPF 1 - 2")
Isolated Locations In
C, S FL
(QPF 1 - 2")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
S BC....E WA....C, E OR....ID....W MT....W WY....CO....UT....NV....CA....AZ....NM....W, C TX
Isolated Locations In
SE TX....Coastal LA, MS, AL.....FL
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Worse before it gets better?
Of course that is the talk about heat and drought, which in recent years has become a staple of forecasts for southwestern Asia. And that oft-used remark seems appropriate for the next two weeks, as heat ridge expansion begins one more time before the first signs of autumn weather envelop the Levant and Persia. The power of the heat ridge wanes just a little bit in early week, only to bubble up again across Iran and the Middle East by September 10. At that time, a weakness, then a general trough, will slide from Europe southeastward over the Ukraine, Black Sea, and Turkey. This reaction pumps up; the subtropical high, while adding low level humidity. When the trough complex finally reaches an arc from the Caspian Sea into the United Arab Emirates, thunderstorms will become more common and start the long process of dislodging the widespread heat.
But this is a slow happening, so abandon any ideas of turning off air conditioning or dreaming of winter. Like most Septembers since 2010, hot air will prove to be a tough demon to drive out.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
The monsoon is still active across India and Indochina, but the growth and organization of the Madden-Julian Oscillation points toward a shift in Asian and Pacific Basin weather shortly. The impressive polar westerlies are continuing to draw in some of the moisture and energy form the MJO, which is still incoherent but is straddling Indonesia into the area below Hawaii.
There may be a gap over Australia between winter storms. A large cold low and frontal structure has now passed east of the metropolitan locations along the eastern shore of the subcontinent, which should end the elevation snowfall and usher in some sunny and warmer days. The next system is well south and west, closer to Antarctica.
GOES WEST
NHC; METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
The concern in the equatorial Pacific Theater is not about the very marginal looking Tropical Storm Kiko, but of two strong waves lurking below southern Mexico and Panama. These features should intensify and hug the Mexican Riviera coastline. Potential to reach hurricane strength, combined with the possibility of building a moisture stream into Texas and the Great Plains may mean increased flooding threats from the southern and western Mexican states but also into the south central USA by next weekend.
Another issue is the active storm track with the polar jet stream over the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska. Considering that it is still calendar summer, it is unusual to see a deep, well-defined low pressure between Alaska and Hawaii. More to the point, if ridging in Canada is maintained, undercutting disturbances could enhance rain and severe weather in the central and eastern chambers of North America at mid-month.
GOES EAST
NHC; METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
Dry air insertions have been eliminating most tropical waves from equatorial Africa. The next well-formed convective circulation below the Cape Verde Islands is being watched for growth, and possible motion into the Lesser Antilles. Also for consideration is the active frontal structure along the Gulf Coast and Southeast shoreline.
A diffuse trough across the lower Great Plains and Texas has a moisture tape associated with it out of Mexico, and may prove to be an excessive, long-live rain producer as it tracks through Dixie in the near term. Much cooler air across the eastern half of the nation may be joined by another cP intrusion by next weekend.
The Antarctic air masses continue to pass through the southern half of South America. The frontal structures are loaded with rain and thunderstorms, accompanied by higher elevation snow and record low temperatures in parts of Chile and Argentina. Aside from a tropical wave exiting Colombia, much of the northern portions of the continent are hot and remarkably dry.
METEOSAT SEVIRI
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Cold fronts and deep mid-latitude storms will be bringing down temperatures across Europe in the next two weeks. While still warm in the southern half of the subcontinent, the presence of cold upper lows will depress readings even into the Italian and Balkan Peninsulas. Thunderstorm threats will increase, especially over the far eastern European nations and Asia Minor by September 8. The closed low in Scotland may bring heavy downpours via diurnal convection through the British Isles.
The Saharan heat ridge will be suppressed southward, while the ITCZ with its large convective circulations will continue to move from the Horn Of Africa westward to below the Cape Verde Islands. This is still a summer pattern, and I think impulse will continue to form, and travel, through the central third of Africa. The north and south portions of the continent will be largely hot and dry.
