WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday, May 18, 2024; WEATHER HAZARDS And GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

FL....GA....SC....Coastal NC

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

W, S AB....MT....WY....CO....W KS....NE....W IA....SD

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In 

Far N MB, ON, QC

(QPF 1 - 3")

Isolated Locations In

FL....GA....SC....Coastal NC

(QPF 1 - 3")

Isolated Locations In

W, S AB....MT....WY....CO....W KS....NE....W IA....SD

(QPF 1 - 3")

 

EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK

(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)

 

Scattered Locations In

S CA Deserts....AZ....C, S NV....C, S UT....CO....NM....TX....LA....W MS....AR....SW MO....KS....OK

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

And now for the big burst of heat....

The longer term forecast models are adamant about extreme heat enveloping all of the Middle East, Persia, and the Indus River watershed.  The massive Saharan heat ridge complex is already in place, and you will see a steady decline in rainfall potential outside of Anatolia and the Caucasus over the next ten days. See also that the Indian monsoon is trying to organize, and could spin up a tropical cyclone along the Bay of Bengal shoreline in South Asia in about a week or so. The monsoonal fetch is forecast to be very strong this summer (numerical models and analogs as guidance), even reaching Southeastern Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan in addition to northern India.

A wide area from northern Africa through the Levant and Persia (eventually extending into the Central Asia Republics) is in for a brutal stretch of dry heat from now until about the first week of September. Some of the southern and eastern Iranian provinces will also have high relative humidity in the lower levels of the atmosphere in accompaniment with the awful heat.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

With the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a somewhat ill-defined Phase 7, 8 position, attention turns to what looks like a convective circulation well east of Papua/New Guinea. There is some potential for this feature to develop into a tropical cyclone, though it is probably too early in the season and the impulse is very far south. Note also that disturbances in East Asia and the western Pacific Basin seem weaker than the past week or two.

Australia has dried out nicely and remains very warm. But Tasmania and New Zealand have a semi-stationary upper low creating showers and cool conditions.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

Some may look at the central and eastern Pacific Basin and fret about a new round of storms. But also consider that ridging is in an expansion phase across Mexico into Texas, and will likely force the incoming disturbances on a further north path toward the Great Lakes. The large cyclonic swirl below the Aleutian Islands represents the threat of a severe weather outbreak Tuesday and Wednesday over parts of the Great Plains and Midwest.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The system which hammered Southeast Texas later Thursday has largely broken up and merged with a frontal structure along the Eastern Seaboard. A vast stretch of warm and dry weather from the Mississippi Valley to the West Coast is related to the ascension of the Mexican heat ridge, which will be a key factor in weather through the rest of the month and likely the entire summer, in conjunction with a building Bermuda High.

Hot and humid weather covers the northern half of South America. But also the persistent frontal structure from northern Argentina into Bolivia, which continues to produce very heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in the Rio De La Plata watershed and southern Brazil.Cool and dry weather dominates most of Chile.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

There is a split between a warm, dry Eastern Europe and Russia vs. incoming cooler air with strong showers and thunderstorms from the British Isles through France and Italy. A negative tilt 500MB trough will push in from the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and the midweek time frame could prove quite troubling from Germany into the Danube Valley with respect to severe weather.

Even though it is far too early to think about tropical cyclone potential via the ITCZ, you have to admit that the waves so far have been strong, moving from the Horn of Africa to the vicinity of Liberia. Much of the African continent is very hot and dry in response to the impressive Kalahari and Sahara ridge complexes.

 

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 7:25 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2024 by Larry Cosgrove

All rights reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author.

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