WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, January 3, 2026; WEATHER HAZARDS, GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

CA....S NV

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Scattered Locations

CA....S NV

(QPF 1 - 3")

 

WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL

(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)

 

Scattered Locations In 

Coastal Ranges Of BC, WA, OR....High Sierra CA

(Snow; 4 - 24")

Isolated Locations In

N MN....NW WI

(Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain; 4 - 8" Plus Glazing)

Isolated Locations In

E BC....ID....W MT....NW WY

(Snow; 4 - 10")

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

Incredible Cold, Snow Cover Across Much Of Eurasia; Severe Weather Risks Growing From Anatolia and the Levant Through Iran

The placement of snowpack and the Arctic air is impressive over much of Eurasia, with the lingering question being how much of that weather will reach the Middle East and Persia? The energetic cold domes and troughs at 500MB over the European subcontinent will split, with some energy passing through Turkey and on into Pakistan and Tibet, while the brutal, life threatening chills will mostly encamp across Russia, Mongolia, and Manchuria. And if the model guidance is correct, lock up and stay in place through the rest of January.

One offshoot of the full-latitude trough now stretching from the British Isles into the western Sahara Desert will be a potent shortwave which will likely reach Iraq and Iran next weekend. If enough moisture comes into play (with some warm advection), there could be a scary sequence of intense convection followed by a sharp drop in temperature that impacts the Gulf States (UAE, Kuwait) into Turkmenistan, with significant Iranian snowfall that carries on into the Central Asian Republics, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

The incoherent (straddling Phases 2 through 6) but convectively strong Madden-Julian Oscillation is producing repeated heavy rainfall across Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. The MJO linkage to the polar westerlies across the western Pacific Basin will provide a warm alternation in temperatures in much of the lower 48 states over the next week or so, but the set-up may shift to much colder air across the eastern two-thirds of North America in mid-January and onward. Bitter cold looks to occupy the area from the Gobi Desert through the Chukchi Peninsula, and some of the chilled domain may find its way into China, Korea and Japan starting next weekend.

There is some intense convection (MCS) over northeastern Australia, and linear thunderstorm bands further south across the subcontinent. But this should be a very hot turn in the Outback as well as New Zealand, with Antarctic regimes staying well to the south.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

Vexing weather question facing the USA: which storm and frontal structure in the southern branch will ultimately break the milder forecasts for the medium range? If the tropical forcing around Indonesia does survive and press toward the International Dateline, frontal linkage intact, the second system in the sequence (below Hawaii) will create a prolonged temperature drop and more widespread frozen precipitation from North Texas into the Midwest in about nine or ten days. Keep in mind that the deep snowpack in Canada and the Great Lakes is also an incentive for Arctic values to drop into the nation.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

That blob of cloudiness over Canada and the Great Lakes/Northeast is a dome of Arctic air, with small disturbances rotating around its circumference. I do not see the warmer values in the Great Plains and Texas reaching the Eastern Seaboard until Wednesday morning, with the possibility that anyone living across the interior of the Mid-Atlantic and New England may not see much of the moderation. Note that the heat ridge forecast by the model guidance in Florida is not well-formed, with a tropical wave in Cuba and the Cayman Islands.

The South American summer is in full convective bloom, with the northern two-thirds of the continent locked in the hot, humid with diurnal thunderstorms pattern common in the austral summer. Chile and Argentina are largely hot and dry, even with colder air close by the Pacific Ocean and near Tierra Del Fuego.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

Note the spectacular full-latitude trough and cold front that covers western Europe in northern Africa. Much of the Sahara Desert and vicinity is no worse than mild or warm, and mostly dry with high pressure. This is likely a very cold, steady pattern across the subcontinent, with the remaining warmth in the Balkan Peninsula and Ukraine erased by January 13. The snowpack across Asia may extend itself into portions of France and Germany at mid-month.

A mild/dry North vs. stormy, hot and humid south division is shown through Africa. There is some vulnerability toward a tropical cyclone in Madagascar, but for the most part convection stretching from the Congo Basin into Mozambique will be of average intensity.