WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, June 8, 2024

[Larry Cosgrove]

TODAY'S FUN LINKS:

Scientists Make Gains in Mystery of Missing Snow NCAR - 30 May 2024 New insights published in BAMS on snow sublimation can help water managers decide whether to hold or release reservoir water as the spring runoff begins. Hurricanes Don’t Stop at the Coast—These Mountain Towns Know How Severe Inland Flood Damage Can Be, and They’re Preparing The Conversation - 29 May 2024 Western North Carolina’s history is just one example of the inland risks from tropical cyclones. Massive Hailstones Keep Hitting the U.S. Here's Why. (may require subscription) The Washington Post - 1 June 2024 Baseball-sized hail hit the Denver region Thursday night, the latest storm in what "has not been a quiet hail year." Forest Thinning May Provide Water Benefits Downstream Arizona State University - 21 May 2024 A recent study utilized a new modeling technique to determine that forest thinning would increase water supplies in Arizona's Kaibab National Forest. Medical Schools Around the World Are Expanding Their "Climate Change Curriculums" Inside Climate News - 31 May 2024 Medical students are pushing their schools to teach more about the health impacts of climate change. How an El Niño-Driven Drought Brought Hunger to Southern Africa Yale University - 20 May 2024 A record-breaking drought, fueled by the El Niño weather pattern, has caused widespread crop failure and national emergency declarations in Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. NASA Launches Small Climate Satellite to Study Earth's Poles NASA - 25 May 2024 The first of a pair of climate satellites designed to study heat emissions at Earth’s poles is in orbit after lifting off from New Zealand on 25 May. TEMPO Instrument Air Quality Data Now Publicly Available Harvard & Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics - 30 May 2024 Air pollution data on a neighborhood scale are now available in near real-time from the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution instrument. The Impacts of Climate Change on Food Production University of Texas at Arlington - 20 May 2024 New research shows that climate change has led to decreased pollen production from plants and less pollen diversity than previously thought.   Seismic Waves Used to Track LA’s Groundwater Recharge after Record Wet Winter Seismological Society of America - 3 May 2024 Researchers analyzed changes in the velocity of seismic waves traveling through the Los Angeles basin to determine how much rainwater trickled underground from reservoirs. Alaska’s Rusting Waters: Pristine Rivers and Streams Turning Orange University of California, Davis - 20 May 2024 Dozens of Alaska’s most remote streams and rivers are turning from a crystal clear blue into a cloudy orange, and the staining could be the result of minerals exposed by thawing permafrost. What's Been Deadliest in U.S. Hurricanes, Tropical Storms Lately May Surprise You Weather Underground - 1 June 2024 According to a recent study, U.S. deaths from hurricanes and tropical storms in recent years have most often been due to drownings in areas flooded from heavy rainfall, illustrating the heightened danger of water rather than wind.

 

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

WA....OR....N NV....ID....W MT....WY....W. C CO....NW NM....E AZ....UT

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

E NM....W TX And Panhandle....OK....SE KS....S MO....AR....NW MS....TN....W NC....VA....WV

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

C, S FL

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....ME....C, S QC

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Scattered Locations In

NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....ME....C, S QC

(QPF 1 - 2")

Isolated Locations In

C, S FL

(QPF 1 - 2")

 

EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK

(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)

 

Scattered Locations In

CA Deserts....SE OR....C, S ID....NV....AZ....UT....NM....CO....WY....S MY....Far W SD....W NE....W KS....OK....AR....TX....LA....MS....AL...FL....GA....SC....E NC

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

If you want relief (rain, thunder and cooler temperatures), try the Caucasus.

In keeping with apparent weather  of the past seven years or so, a brutal heat ridge has blown up across northern Africa, the Middle East, Persia and the Indus River watershed. The ridge complex will start a north and east growth pattern next weekend, which will deliver the extreme readings as far north as southern Siberia and Mongolia. Climatology of Saharan +Persian subtropical highs can allow for a weakness in the Zagros and Alborz ranges and on into Kurdistan, so brief orographic showers and thunderstorms are possible in higher elevations. But for most living in a wide area stretching from Morocco to northern India and south through the Sahel into Yemen and Oman, the chances for rain are but a distant memory.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation has become incoherent, and may be reforming soon in concert with the Asian Monsoonal fetch that is currently affecting the southern and eastern rim of the continent. Most of the numerical models are trying to form a closed low over the Indian subcontinent, which would increase emphasis on thunderstorms and precipitation further north and west and could reach the Himalayan foothills in the 11-15 day range. The convective array for now is the pulse type, mostly diurnal but sometimes forming pre-sunrise along the shorelines,

Note the strong cold frontal push approaching New Zealand and Oceania. The cool intrusions will be getting stronger form now on, and will take temperatures down in most of Australia, with stratiform rainfall across the southern half of the subcontinent.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

One of the ways you can tell that a classic La  Nina is developing is that at any time of year, a Gulf of Alaska Low (vortex cold season) is present. The response will mean a normal to cool temperature regime in the West (coolest BC, WA, and OR) and New England/Maritime Provinces with extreme heat a persistent problem between the Continental Divide and the Potomac Valley. Thunderstorms will become more numerous in southern Canada and the northernmost USA. This is what the full disc satellite view can tell you and prepare what is likely to happen. The heat in the south central states will expand out, maybe reaching the Interstate 90 corridor by next weekend. And just think what could happen when an mAk gyre gets going after Halloween....

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

One of the arguments that a tropical system will not develop in Cuba or the Bahamas is that shearing west/southwest flow is present with the subtropical jet stream. This is clearly visible on satellite imagery and normally would not allow for convection or winds to spread into the Gulf of Mexico. But as we have seen with the past hurricane season, many systems in similar condition got a name anyway. This feature could bring substantial precipitation to the Florida Peninsula on June 9-10, but I am wary of any other impacts from a disturbance that has great moisture but entirely the wrong upper air profile. Of more concern is the cold front and shortwave riding over top of the Texas heat ridge. That feature will almost surely trigger severe weather across the Great Lakes and the Northeast on Sunday.

Consider the packed ITCZ in the Amazon Basin and Caribbean shoreline. It is far too early in the season for a "Cape Verde" type development, But as move into the heart of summer, beyond the upper westerlies and the Saharan Air Layer (again, I think mid-August), the northward shift of the discontinuity and the expansion of deep mean easterlies will set off major problems for the Greater Antilles and U.S. shorelines of the western Atlantic Basin. See also the cold frontal [penetration through Chile and Argentina, and the vast interior warm and dry condition in the continent.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

Europe has latched on to a pattern for summer that may be hard to break. Storms and cold fronts form the northern Atlantic Ocean progress eastward, then break up over the central chamber of the subcontinent. The ECMWF panels show this scenario through the month of June, where they only serious heat occurs (occasionally) in the Balkan Peninsula , Asia Minor and Russia. Shower and thunderstorm potential is present generally every three days, with hail chances in the British Isles and Scandinavia (when upper lows are well-defined).

The ITCZ is lightning up in equatorial Africa, but southwest flow aloft in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean will stop any growth or circulation formation. Once again, the African La Nina pattern of hot and dry north (Saharan heat ridge), moist south (tropical waves and MCS cases) and warm/dry South (Kalahari subtropical high) are in firm control.

[Larry Cosgrove]

The Texas Heat Ridge is about to Hook Up With Its Bermuda Counterpart....

Every summer I use climatology, persistence and analogs to determine if and where heat ridges are likely to be centered. This being a likely moderate La Nina along with evacuation of the polar westerlies toward the Canadian border offers a clue. But the biggest entrant is the impressive heat ridge over Texas and the southern High Plains, which has mostly deflected any colder air and made the various medium range forecasts look foolish. Schemes can have cold bias lingering well into the spring, and every once in a while into the early part of summer. In addition, the longer term equations have insisted on a 2007-esque weakness that would take the south central region out of the intense heat. This has not happened, and a "go your own way" type of prediction makes sense. Such as using thickness parameters to create outlines for extreme heat.

We will soon revert back to a cool West vs. hot Central, East alignment, very close to -ENSO climatology. Orographic convection in the western states may be enhanced up a 500MB trough and forerunner shortwave. But the thunderstorms that occur with the cold front in the Northeast on Sunday (and some along Interstate 40/44 in the lagging back section of the boundary) may be more relevant. Other impulse and frontal structures will keep the northern tier moderate. Further south, anyone living east of the Front Range all the way t6o the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard should be ready for a long-lived heat wave, with the worst of heat in the central and southern Great Plains and eventually into the Mid-Atlantic into New England.

As for tegh tropics, the disturbed area in the Greater Antilles is highjlyu sheared, but could spread showers and thunderstorms form Florida westward into the lower Rio Grande Valley by next weekend.