TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Fresh Water from Thin Air Nature - 14 December 2023 Strategies for collecting water from the atmosphere using minimal energy could fill a crucial gap in sustaining communities that have limited access to water. |
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| | CityLife - 8 December 2023As discussed in a recent BAMS article, the new cutting-edge remote sensing monitoring system is designed to provide precise measurements of surface solar radiation in real time. |
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| | Washington State University - 13 December 2023New research reveals an alarming, longer-term rising trend of successive heat waves melting snowpack earlier in the year. |
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| | Aarhus University - 6 December 2023 A green corridor through the Sahara emerged precisely during the period when our earliest ancestors migrated from Africa. |
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| | Frontiers - 7 December 2023The findings are from a comprehensive sustained ocean time series of observations called the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS), which started in 1988. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
C, E TX....LA....W MS....S AR....SE OK
STRONG WINDS
(Pressure Gradient, Orographically Enhanced)
Coastal BC
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
C, E TX....LA....W MS....AR....C, E OK....C, E KS....W MO....W IA....E NE....E SD....MN....ON Boundary Waters
(QPF 1-4")
Isolated Locations In
Coastal BC
(QPF 1 - 2")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Isolated Locations In
N MB
(Intense Cold)
Isolated Locations In
C MB
(Snow; 2 - 6")
Isolated Locations In
Coastal Ranges Of BC
(Snow; 4 - 16" Above 4000 Feet).
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The cold air stays in Russia.
While strong 500MB shortwaves are moving from eastern Europe through the Levant into Central Asia, the bitter cold remains embedded above the Arctic Jet stream at higher latitudes. None of the numerical models show penetration of the cAk domain below 40 N Latitude. But the impulses are getting stronger, generating heavy rain and thunderstorms on a march from the Mediterranean Sea through Iraq and Iran, then into the Central Asian Republics and Pakistan/India. Snow may fall at higher elevations, but viewed realistically this is more of a spring pattern with risks for severe weather much higher than frozen precipitation during the course of the next ten days.
HIMAWARI 8
Kochi University
The Madden-Julian Oscillation seems to be breaking up, perhaps reorganizing in Phase 2. This is important because the current convective clustering near the International Dateline is fading. A Phase 7, 8 position help to energize the 500MB jet streams , with amplification that will produce ridge axes in the +PNA, -AO, and -NAO sectors. But this latest shift will reduce cold air in China, flatten the flow in the second week of January and lead to a January Thaw set-up affecting the lower 48 states and southern Canada with warmer air and better chances for precipitation.
Note also the lingering frontal structure across New Zealand and Australia, continuing the unusual (for an El Nino episode) increase in precipitation for those areas. It should be noted, however, that a strong warming trend is underway across the Maritime Continent.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
The two storms in the sequence of four disturbances are moving into Texas/the Great Plains and the Gulf of Alaska. The impulse in the center of the continent will trigger heavy rain and thunderstorms, with potential for heavy snow in the Front Range/High Plains into Monday morning. The larger, colder 500MB closed low will drop southeastward through the Intermountain Region, further enhancing cold advection over the central and eastern half of the U.S. in the 6-10 day period.
Note also the highly unusual Antarctic vortex across the southern Pacific Ocean. It is austral summer, after all.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
The very clouded picture cross North America is a result of deep moisture advection off of the Gulf of Mexico, which is contributing to the growth of the storm complex coming into the High Plains. The system is still disorganized, but the 500MB core this afternoon appeared to be over West Texas. Cold air pooling is largely limited to the Intermountain Region.
Moisture is slowly increasing across South America. But cold frontal passages are still occurring, with the latest boundary west of Chile. Thunderstorms are widespread over the western two-0thirds of the continent, in mostly a diurnal + orographic pattern.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
There may be changes in about a month or so, but for now, Arctic air is largely limited to the northern third of Europe. The Saharan ridge complex is strong enough to encompass the Mediterranean countries. The disturbance and frontal structure west of the British Isles is forecast to reform in the central portion of the subcontinent in early week, and may provide important precipitation to the Balkan and Anatolian Peninsulas.
Convection is at a minimum over Africa, confined to areas below the Equator in a diurnal fashion. The Saharan ridge is wide and strong, but the Kalahari subtropical high is more compact covering Zimbabwe and South Africa.
