WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday, May 3, 2025; NEXT TEN DAYS; Part 1

[Larry Cosgrove]

Severe Weather Potential Ramps Up In The South Central And Dixie States

METEOBLUE

UQAM Meteocentre (5)

TwisterData.Com (5)

University Of Wisconsin Weather Server (3)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (2)

ECMWF

The period May 6-8 shapes up as a danger zone in the south central U.S., particularly in a belt from near Abilene TX to Monroe LA, and 200 miles either side of that arc. All model guidance has a case of severe thunderstorms (discrete) turning into a rather violent MCS that hammers S OK....N, C TX as well as portions of LA and MS from Tuesday morning through Thursday. There are three keys to the development of this event. One is the focused vertical velocity, created due to the energy being forced to move underneath the ridge over the Great Plains. The other is the mP/cT/mT convergence with linear shards of vorticity associated with the negative or neutral tilt of the 500MB low. Instability is very impressive, and capping will likely not be an issue. When the convective clustering takes shape, some of the schemes compress the energy and create a derecho that lasts from West Texas into Mississippi and Alabama. So either day or nocturnal mechanisms for severe weather, along with torrential rainfall, is highly possible.

There will be chances for additional rains in Appalachia into the Eastern Seaboard (lingering upper low) and the West (incoming 500MB trough). It will take a while before rain/thunder completely exits the scene in Dixie as the incoming low pressure merges with the current cold upper depression.