EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST
(Between Day 11 And Day 15)
The Heat Ridge Holds Over Southern And Eastern Tiers. For Now.
CIMSS (3)
CMA/WMO
TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)
NOAA/PMEL
NOAA/CPC
HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)
Environment Canada
WeatherBELL
NOAA/CPC
This has been a particularly difficult forecast period, since so much of the model guidance has run very cool across the eastern 2/3 of the USA, only to switch to a mixed pattern with a heat ridge complex covering the West, Texas and Deep South. After a very cool run at 12z, the 0z incarnations for July emphasized some very hot conditions not just across the Desert and Intermountain Regions, but also along the Interstate 10 and 20 corridors. But the presence of high-latitude ridging, apparently a blocking -AO styled feature, favors a cool Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast period after the July 4th holiday. Conspicuous in its absence is any sort of tropical system in the entire Atlantic Basin; westerlies will be found aloft at high latitudes, so even though the ITCZ looks quite well-defined with numerous waves, shearing winds will take apart any convective circulations that emerge off of the west African coast.
I suspect that aside from frontal passages from the northern/central Great Plains to the East Coast, we will be entering a drier pattern that should last through the first three weeks of September. Since the West, especially California, has been so hot and dry, the specter of wildfires emerges. The normal fire season is in October in the Golden State, but the solid +ENSO signature virtually guarantees that the southern branch will activate just after the end of calendar summer. But between now and that time, count on repeated incendiary threats to CAISO and other western U.S. power districts that will not end until the split flow develops and moisture returns to the Southwest with a vengeance.
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, June 13, 2026 at 1:30 A.M. CT
Disclaimer:
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.
Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove
Sunday, June 13, 2026 at 1:30 A.M. CT
Disclaimer:
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.
Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove
All rights reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author.