WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday, July 18, 2026; WEATHER EXTREMES And GLOBAL SATELLITE DISCUSSION

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

E AZ....NM....W, C CO....UT....NV

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

FL

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

MO....S IL....SW IN....KY....TN....N MS....N AL....N GA....SC Upstate....W NC....S VA

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

FL

(QPF 1 - 3")

 

EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK

(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)

 

Scattered Locations In

CA....NV....ID....UT....AZ....NM....CO....WY....C, E MT....ND....SD....NE....KS....OK....TX....AR....LA....MS....AL

Isolated Locations In

FL....GA....SC....NC....C, S VA

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

FENG YUN

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; CMA

 

For most, no monsoon for you! The matter of the expanding Saharan heat ridge network....

Typically the period between July 18 and 23 is the hottest time of the year in the Northern Hemisphere. Not to disappoint, the now strong El Nino signal is favoring widespread subtropical high pressure formation at 500MB and at the surface. The Saharan heat ridge complex has joined with its counterpart over Saudi Arabia and Persia, making for an immense subsident area stretching from the Atlantic Ocean into western India. The ridge complex prevents westward and northern expansion of the monsoonal fetch, which is weaker and stays over the middle and lower portions of the Indian subcontinent through Indochina and the eastern quarter of China. This is a nightmare scenario for Iran and Pakistan, as groundwater is very low and the threat of dried wells and rivers may last well into September. The southern branch flow will likely start to regenerate in a bracket from the Mediterranean Sea through the Persian Gulf and Indus Valley in the second week of the ninth month.

In a time of immense trouble, brutal heat and drought is in full control of Mesopotamia, Kuwait, Persia and Pakistan for the next two months. And Central Asia through Mongolia and Manchuria are likely to continue with the harsh summer for that long of a time as well. Only communities bordering on the Aegean, Black and Caspian Seas have any realistic chance of thunderstorms. If the ECMWF series is right, Greece and Turkey into the Caucasus will be primed for severe weather next weekend.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

There is strong potential that one or both of the waves seen over the western rim of the Pacific Basin may transition to a typhoon, and those impulses could act to amplify the jet stream. That action might have impacts on the weather in North America, most likely leading to a cooler eastern third of the continent after July 28.

The frontal structure across eastern China is attached to the monsoonal fetch from India, and may again produce severe weather across the coastal communities of the PRC. The interior of East Asia is extremely hot and dry.

An elongated frontal structure is moving through southern Australia, and could bring intense convection to the middle part of the subcontinent, much like what is happening in New Zealand. Note also that in keeping with the El Nino status, Malaysia and Indonesia are very fair, hot and dry.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

Befitting an entrenched El Nino, the equatorial Pacific Basin is very active with a Tropical Storm (Elida) and Tropical Depression 6_E, and two additional waves below Mexico and Central America. There is a possibility that one such system could turn north into the Mexican Riviera in a few days, so the area should be monitored closely. But the bigger story is the strengthening of the Sonoran heat ridge complex across the western and central USA, which is working southward and should suppress the monsoonal moisture that has deviated into the Rio Grande Valley. The ridge should continue to stop eastward penetration of the Gulf Of Alaska Low during the near term.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The severe thunderstorms that pushed through the Great Lakes and Northeast should put an end to the smoke-infested skies in those regions. But the boreal fires in Ontario and northern Manitoba may restart soon if convective rains associated with cold fronts do not arrive soon.

There is a small chance that the disorganized MCS west of the Florida Peninsula organizes further, as it heads mostly westward across the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

About 2/3 of North America is occupied by weather associated with the Sonoran heat ridge. The area from Ontario and Quebec into the Southeast will trend cooler  during the remainder of July with ongoing chances for intense convection.

Note how dry South America has become, with the ITCZ weakening and drifting toward the Caribbean shoreline. A frontal structure is triggering showers over easternmost Brazil, but the meaningful temperature changes and rainfall remains over the southern third of the continent, particularly in Argentina.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

The heat ridge complex across northern Africa is at its strongest, linking with the Arabian/Persian subtropical high to present a wide arc of searing heat involving two continents. But fronts and troughs are moving through Europe, and will create some potential for severe weather north of the Mediterranean countries. Spain, Italy and Greece into Turkey will be very vulnerable to intense convection late in the new week.

While the northern and southern thirds of Africa are largely dry and hot, it is interesting to see that the equatorial portions of the continent have a very strong, wet signature from the ITCZ, which is rare in a well-developed El Nino. Conditions remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation west of the cape Verde islands, however, due to shearing west/southwest flow aloft.